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TWN Info Service
on WTO and Trade Issues (Apr26/10) Geneva, 14 Apr (D. Ravi Kanth) -- United States President Donald Trump on 13 April seemingly escalated the war against Iran by threatening that the blockade that he has imposed in the Strait of Hormuz has come into effect with severe military consequences, amid ongoing negotiations through mediator channels to work out the details for a likely temporary truce, media reports have suggested. In his latest post on Truth Social on 13 April, President Trump echoed his threats against Iran all over again by suggesting that “Iran’s Navy is laying at the bottom of the sea, completely obliterated - 158 ships.” He said, “What we have not hit are their small number of, what they call, “fast attack ships”, because we did not consider them much of a threat.” He added: “Warning: If any of these ships come anywhere close to our BLOCKADE, they will be immediately ELIMINATED, using the same system of kill that we use against the drug dealers on boats at Sea. It is quick and brutal.” “P. S. 98.2% of Drugs coming into the US by Ocean or Sea have STOPPED! Thank you for your attention to this matter.” Later, in another post, he said: “34 Ships went through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, which is by far the highest number since this foolish closure began.” Speaking to reporters outside the White House, President Trump said, “I can tell you we’ve been called by the other side. They would like to make a deal very badly.” The current 15-day ceasefire will expire on 21 April. President Trump ordered Iran to reach a deal within the next seven days, failing which Iran could face unpleasant circumstances. “There is no fighting right now. We have a blockade,” he said. “Iran is doing absolutely no business, we’re going to keep it that way very easily.” His earlier statement claiming that other countries are going to join the blockade has not been fulfilled, with the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Keir Starmer ruling out any participation in a military blockade. However, President Trump said, “we don’t need other countries, frankly, but they have offered the services. We’ll let it be known probably tomorrow [Tuesday].” The US Central Command has issued a notice stating that “neutral” vessels currently at Iranian ports would be granted a grace period to depart those ports, which expires at 10 am ET or 1400 hours European time, according to a Financial Times report. IRAN’S RESPONSE In response to President Trump’s threats, a spokesperson for the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corp said that “military vessels in the Strait will be met with a forceful response.” “The criminal America's restriction on the movement of maritime vessels in international waters is an illegal act and an example of piracy,” the spokesperson said, warning that “the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran explicitly and resolutely declares that the security of ports in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman is either for everyone or for no one.” “If the security of the ports of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman is threatened, no port in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman will be safe,” the spokesperson declared. In the face of tit-for-tat threats and likely military action, it is unclear whether the two sides will be able to reach any deal. It also appears that Iran is unlikely to give up its uranium enrichment rights without iron-clad security guarantees. President Trump maintains that Washington is going to apply more pressure on Iran by choking off their access to the world markets for their energy industry. He also wants to make sure that the Strait of Hormuz is not being held up for extortion by having Iran charge fees for any ships that go through the Strait, according to Al-Jazeera’s Washington correspondent. It appears the US wants to put pressure on China and other countries that are dependent on Iranian oil so as to create a condition in that they will prevail on Iran to settle for an agreement, the correspondent suggested. Iran, however, has been facing sanctions for a long time and has succeeded in overcoming the consequences by adopting strategic patience as its overarching policy goal, said analysts. Amidst the continuing headwinds in the global economy, which appears to be facing stagnation in the wake of the war launched by the US and Israel against Iran, the latest threats from President Trump could only worsen the overall global economic climate. According to several analysts and economists, Iran has turned an asymmetrical war with the US and Israel into a symmetrical economic nightmare which could last for an uncertain period. According to a report in the Wall Street Journal, “the US blockade on ships entering or exiting Iranian ports is set to drain more oil from a tight market, prolong the squeeze on other key commodities flowing through the Strait of Hormuz and inject significant uncertainty into the global economy.” On 13 April, oil prices, particularly Brent crude, crossed $100 per barrel and it could go up further if the blockade takes an aggressive military turn, analysts suggested. Several major countries in Asia, including India, are facing severe difficulties in receiving supplies of oil and gas, as well as Pakistan, the Philippines, and Myanmar, among others. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil production fell by 27% due to the ongoing war, particularly due to the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, media reports have suggested.
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