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TWN
Info Service on WTO and Trade Issues (Apr26/09) Geneva, 13 Apr (D. Ravi Kanth) — Following 21 hours of face-to-face negotiations between the United States and Iran in Islamabad, Pakistan, in the early hours of 11 April – which failed to produce any agreement – United States President Donald Trump issued two social media posts on 12 April threatening a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a euphemism for likely military action, reports suggested. US Vice President JD Vance, who led the American delegation in direct talks with Iran – the first of their kind since 1979 – confirmed that the two sides did not reach a deal despite marathon negotiations. “The bad news is that we have not reached an agreement,” Vance said. “And I think that’s bad news for Iran much more than it’s bad news for the United States of America. So, we go back to the United States having not come to an agreement.” Likening the proposed offer to a commercial deal, Vance said, “We are leaving them with our best and final offer,” while seemingly camouflaging what analysts called “maximalist” demands raised by the US. Ironically, the same “maximalist” US approach on display in Islamabad was on view just last month at the WTO’s 14th Ministerial Conference (MC14) in Yaounde, Cameroon. There, as in Islamabad, the US pushed an uncompromising agenda – demanding a permanent moratorium on customs duties on electronic transmissions. Several countries, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the demand was deployed as a centerpiece strategy, one seemingly intended to derail the talks entirely. IRAN’S RESPONSE In sharp contrast, Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who led the Iranian delegation at the Islamabad talks, suggested in an X post that Tehran had offered “forward-looking” initiatives, but the US failed to gain the trust of his delegation. The Iranian Speaker made several observations after the talks failed to yield any outcome. “Before the negotiations, I emphasized that we have the necessary good faith and will, but due to the experiences of the two previous wars, we have no trust in the opposing side. My colleagues on the Iranian delegation Minaab168 [named after the killing of 168 school children following the firing of a US Tomahawk missile, which is alleged to be a war crime] raised forward-looking initiatives, but the opposing side ultimately failed to gain the trust of the Iranian delegation in this round of negotiations.” “America has understood our logic and principles, and now it’s time for it to decide whether it can earn our trust or not.” “We consider every mirror to be another method of authority diplomacy, alongside military struggle, for upholding the rights of the Iranian nation, and we will not for a moment cease our efforts to consolidate the achievements of the forty days of Iran’s national defense.” “I am also grateful for the efforts of our friendly and brotherly country, Pakistan, in facilitating the process of these negotiations, and I send my regards to the people of Pakistan.” “Iran is a body with 90 million souls, from all the heroic people of Iran who, following the advice of the Supreme Leader and by taking to the streets, supported their children and sent us on our way with their blessings – for this, I am grateful, and to my colleagues in these intense 21-hour negotiations, I say: well done, God strengthen you. Long live and enduring be our dear Iran!” Iran described the US positions at the talks as intransigent, even though it was Washington – along with Israel – that launched operation “Epic Fury,” an allegedly illegal and unprovoked brutal war inconsistent with international rules, particularly the United Nations Charter. US officials said that the negotiations collapsed over what they described as Iran’s refusal to commit to abandoning its nuclear program, while Iranian officials blamed the US for the talks breaking down without specifying the sticking points. “We need to see an affirmative commitment that they will not seek a nuclear weapon, and they will not seek the tools that would enable them to quickly achieve a nuclear weapon,” Vice President Vance said after the 21-hour- long talks. The six-week war launched by the US and Israel against Iran has damaged global trade transiting through the 52-km Strait of Hormuz, an international waterway responsible for the passage of 20 percent of petroleum products and 27 percent of natural gas, among other goods. Besides, the Strait of Hormuz is a crucial waterway for the flow of fertilizers, sulphuric acid, and helium, according to several studies. TRUMP GOES TO TOWN After the failure of the talks, President Trump took several hours to put out two posts on his Truth Social website. Following his recent threatening posts – including wiping out the Iranian civilization, describing Iranians with expletives such as “savage animals,” and later announcing negotiations with Iran on 7 April – there was a sigh of relief. After the talks failed, President Trump threatened again, writing: “So, there you have it, the meeting went well, most points were agreed to, but the only point that really mattered, NUCLEAR, was not.” His reference to “nuclear” implied that Iran should hand over its 400 kg of uranium enriched to 60 percent and give up its entire nuclear program, according to media reports. President Trump continued: “Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz.” “At some point, we will reach an “ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO IN, ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO OUT” basis, but Iran has not allowed that to happen by merely saying, “There may be a mine out there somewhere,|” that nobody knows about but them. THIS IS WORLD EXTORTION [a term that was allegedly used when the US imposed unilateral reciprocal tariffs since April 2025), and Leaders of Countries, especially the United States of America, will never be extorted.” President Trump said, “I have also instructed our Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran. No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas. We will also begin destroying the mines the Iranians laid in the Straits.” He further threatened Iran with military action, saying: “Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL!” According to President Trump, “Iran knows, better than anyone, how to END this situation which has already devastated their Country.” “Their Navy is gone, their Air Force is gone, their Anti Aircraft and Radar are useless, Khamenei, and most of their Leaders, are dead, all because of their Nuclear ambition,” he maintained. He informed countries that “the Blockade will begin shortly. Other Countries will be involved with this Blockade. Iran will not be allowed to profit off this Illegal Act of EXTORTION.” “They want money and, more importantly, they want Nuclear. Additionally and, at an appropriate moment, we are fully “LOCKED AND LOADED”, and our Military will finish up the little that is left of Iran!” In a second post, he said: “Iran promised to open the Strait of Hormuz, and they knowingly failed to do so.” “This caused anxiety, dislocation, and pain to many people and Countries throughout the World,” he said, adding: “They say they put mines in the water, even though all of their Navy, and most of their “mine droppers”, have been completely blown up.” He blamed Iran for committing “great dishonor and permanent harm to the reputation of Iran, and what’s left of their Leaders, but we are beyond all of that.” President Trump alleged that “they promised, they better begin the process of getting this INTERNATIONAL WATERWAY OPEN AND FAST!” Although the Trump administration has upended several global agreements, including the UN Charter, President Trump said somewhat audaciously: “Every Law in the book is being violated by them (Iran).” He profusely thanked Pakistan for “their very competent leadership of Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, of Pakistan.” Elaborating on the 21-hour talks, he said: “I could go into great detail, and talk about much that has been gotten but, there is only one thing that matters – IRAN IS UNWILLING TO GIVE UP ITS NUCLEAR AMBITIONS!” “In many ways,” he threatened, “the points that were agreed to are better than us continuing our Military Operations to conclusion, but all of those points don’t matter compared to allowing Nuclear Power to be in the hands of such volatile, difficult, unpredictable people.” While praising Iranian negotiators, President Trump said: “But that doesn’t matter because they were very unyielding as to the single most important issue and, as I have always said, right from the beginning, and many years ago, IRAN WILL NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!” He later threatened even China, saying in an interview with Fox News that if it continues to buy oil from Iran, the US will impose a 50 percent tariff on China. In response to President Trump’s latest threats, Iran’s Speaker said that if the US wants to fight again, Iran is ready to fight. The Iranian Speaker said if they come up with reasonable ideas, we will offer reasonable ideas. The room for talks is still open, an analyst from Pakistan said in an interview with Al Jazeera. The 15-day ceasefire, which will last until 21 April, is still in force – unless something untoward happens in the coming days. ECONOMIC IMPACT Several studies have already assessed the impact of the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, which has now lasted over a month with no peaceful resolution in sight. Unless nations have months’ worth of fertilizer stocks, they will eventually be hit when buffer stocks run dry and supply lines are severed, several analysts told print and broadcasting media outlets. According to one analyst who spoke to Al Jazeera, the damage to production plants is done, and there simply will not be enough fertilizer available. The analyst said: “The critical point often missed is this: without fertilizer, the planet can only sustain about two billion people. Six billion of us are alive because fertilizer flows freely. That flow is now blocked, threatening catastrophic famine in countries that cannot imagine facing such a crisis. This includes wealthy nations like England.” The UK, with its market-driven, low-stock approach, imports over 40 percent of its food and has insufficient fertilizer and diesel reserves. It has no bargaining power. Australia, conversely, exports liquid natural gas to its suppliers, giving it leverage. The UK has none, the analyst said. India has increased domestic production but still imports both fertilizers from Gulf countries and the gas needed to produce urea at home. The government had larger-than-normal pre-war stocks and is prioritizing fertilizer availability by restricting gas to other sectors. However, as for phosphates – essential for food production – India remains dependent on imports and has struggled to secure alternative sources. India’s rice planting season begins in two months. While fertilizers are available for the first application, farmers will feel the pinch later in the season if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, an analyst said in the interview with Al Jazeera. Most Arab countries are net food importers. Morocco, Tunisia, and Sudan have cereal stocks lasting only until the end of the month. A 20 percent rise in food prices – a scenario we are very close to – would push nearly five million more people into food insecurity, on top of 198 million already suffering, said another analyst. “This crisis does not affect everyone equally,” and “the poor suffer far more, leading to increased poverty with differential impacts on women, children, and the elderly,” the analyst said. The primary obstacle may not be Trump or Iran, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, said analysts. A full blockade would damage the US and the global economy more than Iran, said analysts. “Oil and fertilizer prices would soar, creating an economic crisis for Trump himself.” +
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