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Info Service on UN Sustainable Development (Jun26/02) Penang, 5 Jun (Kanaga Raja) -- The surge in the Middle East tensions since early 2026 is driving up global fuel and food prices, disrupting shipping routes and supply chains, and squeezing household incomes, leaving many families struggling to afford basic necessities, according to the UN World Food Programme (WFP). In a new report focusing on the situations in Afghanistan, Somalia, and Sri Lanka, WFP said in these countries, millions of additional people are at risk of food insecurity, and even those who were previously managing are now struggling. It said governments are also under pressure, with higher import costs and less money available to support their populations. At the same time, humanitarian organizations face rising costs and funding shortages, meaning fewer people may receive assistance when they need it most. Speaking at a media briefing at the United Nations headquarters in New York on 4 June, Mr Carl Skau, Acting Executive Director of WFP, said already some six to eight weeks ago, WFP raised the alarm that should the crisis continue and the price of oil remains over $100 a barrel until July, some 45 million people will be pushed into hunger. He said that this is mainly because the correlation between the price of energy and food is so tight in many places and also that in the poorest countries, people are already spending all their money on food and, hence, when food prices rise, they eat less. Highlighting the findings of a WFP report which looked into the situations in Somalia, Afghanistan, and Sri Lanka, Mr Skau said 2.5 million additional people in Somalia are now being acutely food insecure, while in Afghanistan, the number is 2.3 million, and another 1.3 million in Sri Lanka. He explained that a different mix of issues is driving this crisis, with increased food prices being one element. However, he said there is also the element of underfunded humanitarian responses as well as the cost of running humanitarian operations, which has gone up dramatically. Hence, with the limited funding that is available, less people are being reached, he stressed. "Just to illustrate that what we warn against is now playing out in real time in many of these contexts," he said. Mr Skau warned that the long-term implications might be even more severe. For instance, he said that the lack of fertilizer could reduce agricultural productivity during the planting season in most of eastern Africa, echoing the disruptions in food production following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. He also addressed the "historic" funding gap, pointing out that the world is facing "a perfect storm", with record high levels of hunger, which is now at risk of worsening. "At the same time, we've seen historic drops in our funding, with a 40% drop year-to-year last year," he added. Highlighting the case of Somalia, Mr Skau said that the country is now facing the possibility of famine-like conditions, with WFP on the ground working around the clock trying to prevent that from happening. However, "the resources are simply not there", he lamented. He further pointed to the crisis in Afghanistan, which only last year was hit by a heavy earthquake, severe floods, the shockwave from the war in Iran and now the conflict with Pakistan. In the midst of all this, some 2.8 million people have been forced to return to Afghanistan, mainly from Pakistan but also from Iran. He said during his visit to Afghanistan, he was at a border post to Pakistan where some 700,000 people per day are crossing back into Afghanistan. He also witnessed hundreds of mothers carrying their visibly malnourished children on their arms who had to turn back from visiting a rural health clinic outside Jalalabad because nutrition supplies had run out on account of the lack of funding. "Many of them had already walked three or four hours to get to the clinic and they left empty handed. I've never seen anything like it, frankly, in my visits, and the desperation in that clinic is hard to describe," said Mr Skau, highlighting the real impact of the funding cuts. CASE STUDIES According to the WFP report, titled "Food security under pressure", the escalation of geopolitical tension in the Middle East since 28 February 2026 has profound implications for global food security. In an early projection released in March, WFP had estimated that 45 million people would fall into acute food insecurity should oil prices remain around $100 per barrel through the end of June. Other partners have warned of broad implications for the global food system in the short and medium term, due to the crisis' impact on supply chains and energy and fertilizer markets. Unfortunately, almost three months into the conflict, the scenario is beginning to materialize. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude has been above $100 since 6 March on average, said the report. While globally food prices - as measured by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Food Price index - only have seen a slight increase so far, substantial food price rises are already being felt in fragile countries. Highlighting three case studies conducted by WFP in May in Afghanistan, Somalia, and Sri Lanka, the report said the findings indicate that the crisis is generating significant spillovers, particularly through fuel, food price and income shocks and trade disruptions. "As these factors interact with pre-existing vulnerabilities, they quickly translate into visible impacts on food security and livelihoods." The case studies highlight how these impacts converge and lead to worsening affordability, macroeconomic stability, and, in the case of Afghanistan and Somalia, humanitarian outcomes. These impacts are expected to intensify in the coming months, even if the crisis in the Middle East de-escalates, said the report. The studies suggest that the crisis is leading to large increases in vulnerability to food insecurity, it added. Projections for 2026 suggest that an additional 2.5 million people in Somalia could be unable to afford a basic food basket and almost 60 percent of all households unable to afford to purchase essential needs, compared to 47 percent in 2025. In Afghanistan, up to 2.3 million additional people could become food insecure in the event of a prolonged closure of the border with Pakistan and an escalation of the Middle East crisis, adding to the 13.8 million who were food insecure before the crisis. In Sri Lanka, projections indicate that up to 1.3 million additional people may be at risk of being unable to meet their basic food needs, adding to the 4.7 million baseline in 2026. There is both an expansion and diversification of vulnerability, not merely a deepening among the most food insecure, the report observed. The studies suggest that new groups may fall into food insecurity as price increases and income losses undermine purchasing power - particularly ultra-poor urban populations and marginalized rural groups such as pastoralists in Somalia, it said. Extensive dependence on energy and food imports and external trade corridors has left the countries that were studied exposed to the effects of the crisis, it added. In Afghanistan, Sri Lanka and Somalia, impacts include supply chain disruptions and the pass-through of higher global energy prices to domestic prices. Governments' fiscal space is constrained by reduced revenue from falling import duties and the burden of high public debt, said the report. The crisis is also straining global humanitarian operations. In the countries that were covered, rising delivery costs may lead to a reduction in the coverage of assistance, just as interruptions in aid supplies become more likely, it added. Supply chain disruptions have been severe in Afghanistan, with WFP external transport costs increasing by 2.5 to 5 times and delivery times going from 10 days up to as much as 75 days when using alternative corridors. In Somalia, soaring jet fuel prices are leading to higher operational costs for the United Nations Humanitarian Air Service, which is the only way to safely access hard-to-reach areas, while in Somalia, pipeline breaks for nutritious products are expected in the third quarter of 2026. The report said that at the global level, the humanitarian system faces a double squeeze: rising needs and rising delivery costs, implying coverage gaps. WFP estimates it will now serve 1.5 million fewer people that it originally planned to in 2026. If the conflict continues for six months, more than 9 million people could lose assistance, driven by a combination of higher operational costs and rising local food prices, which also increases the cost of cash-based assistance, the report said, adding that in the meantime, funding for WFP operations have also decreased. The risks go beyond food security: concern for political stability is legitimate. The combination of a new major economic shock, a historic decline in foreign aid alongside a global economic growth rate that is insufficient to reduce extreme poverty, represents a deeply concerning development for many countries, said the report. For instance, it said in Somalia, higher food prices have already led to more tensions and protests. Globally, the increasing number of demonstrations in the second quarter of 2026 underlines the impact of the crisis pointing to increasing popular discontent. +
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