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Info Service on UN Sustainable Development (Mar26/02) Penang, 18 Mar (Kanaga Raja) — The UN World Food Programme (WFP) has warned that the escalating conflict in the Middle East could push global hunger to unprecedented levels in 2026. New analysis by WFP estimates that almost 45 million more people could fall into acute food insecurity or worse (known as IPC3+) if the conflict does not end by the middle of the year, and if oil prices remain above US$100 a barrel. This surge would come on top of the 318 million people already facing crisis level hunger or worse, underscoring how geopolitical shocks and economic instability are rapidly deepening global food insecurity, it said. Speaking at a media briefing at the United Nations Office at Geneva on 17 March, Carl Skau, Deputy Executive Director and Chief Operating Officer at the UN World Food Programme, said: “Our analysis projects that if the Middle East conflict continues through June, an additional 45 million people could be pushed into acute hunger by price rises.” “This would take global hunger levels to an all-time record. And it’s a terrible, terrible prospect,” he added. The consequences are falling on the world’s most vulnerable people who are already living in dire conditions, he said, adding that they do not have the margins to cope with a new jump in living costs. “All those with influence must now step up and protect them. It is vital to contain the knock-on effects of this crisis and to make more resources available for the humanitarian response to the crisis.” Skau said of immediate concern is that global fertilizer markets are now being disrupted, just as sub-Saharan Africa heads into a planting season. Fertilizer flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which is now at a virtual standstill, and some 25% of the world’s supply comes through this channel, he pointed out. This is a major risk to countries such as Somalia and Kenya, which depend on Gulf imports of their fertilizers. A reduction in fertilizer supply will increase input costs for farmers and in turn that will mean lower farming yields overall. In the worst case, this means lower yields and crop failures next season, Skau said. The oil shocks will also transmit quickly into food price inflation. Taken together, the spike in global food and fuel costs could leave millions of families priced out of staple foods, particularly in import dependent countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia, he added. “Our supply chains may really be on the brink of the most severe disruption since COVID and the Ukraine war back in 2022,” he warned. “Our shipments of lifesaving food are being affected by the squeeze on trade. It is taking us longer to deliver by sea and our costs have increased.” He said in the Strait of Hormuz, humanitarian shipping has already been restricted on account of security risks. He said that there is only so much WFP can control and its operating costs have now jumped as a result of the disruption. “Our shipping costs are up 18% so far and we have thousands of trucks on the roads every day and these are now running on much more expensive fuel due to the oil prices.” “Higher costs mean that we can buy less food or provide less cash to beneficiaries. Before this crisis, we were already stretching our funds to the limits,” he said, adding that the UN agency has been forced to cut lifesaving food rations for people in famine conditions in Sudan. “We are only able to support 1 in 4 acutely malnourished children in Afghanistan, which is now the world’s worst malnutrition crisis,” he pointed out. When the Ukraine war began in 2022, triggering a cost of living crisis, global hunger reached record levels with 349 million people impacted, said WFP in a news release. WFP’s latest projections indicate that the world is at risk of facing a similar situation in the months ahead if the Middle East conflict continues. It said during the 2022 period, food prices were fast to spike but slow to come down. This meant that vulnerable families already struggling with hunger were priced out of staple food items almost overnight, and for extended periods of time. WFP said that while in 2026 the conflict involves a global energy hub and not a breadbasket region, the potential impact is similar because energy and food markets are tightly correlated. In many parts of the world, vulnerable families who today are currently managing to put some food on the table may soon find they are only able to afford little or no food. The virtual shipping standstill in the Strait of Hormuz and mounting risks to Red Sea maritime traffic are already increasing energy, fuel, and fertilizer costs, deepening hunger beyond the Middle East, said the UN agency. The conflict reverberates far and wide – and the world’s most vulnerable people are the ones who will be most exposed to its ripple effects, it added. According to WFP’s analysis, countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia are the most vulnerable due to a reliance on food and fuel imports. Projections indicate an increase of 21 percent (10.4 million) in food-insecure people for West and Central Africa and 17 percent (17.7 million) for East and Southern Africa. An increase of 24 percent (9.1 million) is forecast for Asia. WFP said in Latin America and the Caribbean, 2.2 million people could be pushed into acute food insecurity, which is a 16 percent increase. In the Middle East and North Africa, 5.2 million people could be pushed into acute food insecurity, which is a 14 percent increase. The UN agency said Sudan imports around 80 percent of its wheat – a higher price for this staple will push more families into hunger. In Somalia, a country in the midst of severe drought, the price of some essential commodities has risen by at least 20 percent since the conflict began, according to local reports. Both are countries with high levels of food insecurity that have also experienced famine in recent years, said the UN agency. It said that this crisis comes amid severe funding shortfalls for WFP which has forced significant prioritization of programmes across all continents, ultimately meaning that people in need of assistance are being left behind. Further increases in food insecurity that are not matched by increased resources could spell catastrophe for some of the world’s most vulnerable countries that are already at risk of famine, it warned. +
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