TWN Info Service on UN Sustainable Development (Jan23/01)
16 January 2023
Third World Network

UN: Concrete measures needed to support an aging world
Published in SUNS #9723 dated 16 January 2023

Geneva, 13 Jan (Kanaga Raja) — The number of people aged 65 years or older worldwide is projected to more than double, rising from 761 million in 2021 to 1.6 billion in 2050, a United Nations report has said.

According to the World Social Report 2023, released by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA), by the end of the twenty-first century, the world could have nearly 2.5 billion older people.

As the world continues to address multiple crises, including the rising cost of living, the rights and well being of older persons must be at the centre of collective efforts to achieve a sustainable future, said the report.

In this context, the report said that rethinking social protection systems, including pension schemes, is necessary.

“One major challenge is maintaining the fiscal sustainability of public pension systems while ensuring income security for all older persons, including workers in informal employment.”

The report also pointed out that expanding decent work opportunities for women and other groups traditionally excluded from the formal labour market, while also recognizing the considerable contribution of the largely informal care sector to the formal economy, are additional crucial elements to ensure sustainable and inclusive economic growth in an ageing world.

According to the report, the number of older people increased rapidly in all regions of the world from 1980 to 2021, a trend that is likely to continue over the next three decades.

It said from 2021 to 2050, the population aged 65 or over in Eastern and South-Eastern Asia and in Central and Southern Asia is projected to grow by more than 540 million, accounting for more than 60 per cent of the global increase.

Over the next three decades, Northern Africa and Western Asia and sub-Saharan Africa are projected to have the fastest growth – or highest growth rate – of the population aged 65 or above, it added.

Globally, the number of people aged 80 years or over is rising even faster than the number aged 65 or above, the report underlined.

By 2050, the world will have an estimated 459 million persons aged 80 or more, almost triple the number in 2021 at around 155 million, it said.

Between 2021 and 2050, this age group is projected to increase by more than 200 per cent in all regions except Europe and Northern America and Australia and New Zealand, where it is expected to grow by 10 per cent and 60 per cent, respectively.

Women live longer than men on average and thus comprise a majority of older persons, especially at the highest ages, the report also said.

In 2021, women outlived men by an average of 5.4 years and accounted for 56 per cent of the global population aged 65 or over, it said, adding that among those aged 80 or over, the proportion of women reached 62 per cent.

Since survival rates for men are projected to gradually move closer to those of women, the sex distribution at older ages is expected to become more balanced, the report suggested.

Still, in 2050, women will likely comprise a majority of the population aged 65 or above and 80 or above (54 per cent and 59 per cent, respectively).

The report further said that the older population is growing globally both in absolute numbers and as a share of the total population.

The report explained that population ageing unfolds over many decades through a gradual upward shift in the age distribution.

It observed that while the share of the population at older ages goes up, the share at younger ages goes down, and that the median and average ages of the population both rise in the process.

In 2021, 1 in 10 people worldwide was aged 65 or over compared to 1 in 20 in 1950. In 2050, this age group may account for 1 in 6 people worldwide, it said.

Over the next three decades, the proportion of older people is projected to double in five regions while increasing more slowly in the other three, it added.

In sub-Saharan Africa, high birth rates are expected to keep the share of children and youth relatively large and therefore the share of older persons relatively small.

“In Europe and Northern America and in Australia and New Zealand, where population ageing is already well advanced, further ageing will take place more slowly.”

In 1980, the world’s 10 oldest populations were in Europe, each with around 15 per cent of the population at ages 65 or above, the report said.

“By 2021, the share above age 65 had pushed past 20 per cent in all 10 countries, on its way to an expected 30 per cent by 2050.”

Although Japan had the world’s oldest population in 2021, China, Hong Kong, Special Administrative Region (SAR) of China, and the Republic of Korea will likely surpass it before 2050, said the report.

“The geography of the world’s oldest countries will shift from Europe towards Eastern and South-Eastern Asia between now and 2050, when the latter is expected to include 5 of the 10 oldest populations.”

Population ageing is progressing more rapidly in developing countries than it did historically in more developed countries, the report said.

It said with few exceptions, such as Japan, in most countries of the more developed regions, the proportion of the population aged 65 or above rose from 7 to 14 per cent in anywhere from 40 to 120 years, and that it took (or will take) between 20 and 50 years to increase the share further from 14 to 21 per cent.

On the other hand, most developing countries will likely see a doubling in the share of older persons from 7 to 14 per cent in 15 to 35 years and a further increase from 14 to 21 per cent in just 10 to 30 years, it added.

It also said that between 2021 and 2050, all regions are expected to experience a rise in the median age, which divides the younger and older halves of the population. Globally, the median age is expected to climb from 30 years in 2021 to 36 years in 2050.

The region of Latin America and the Caribbean is projected to experience a rapid rise in the median age from 30 years in 2021 to 40 years in 2050.

“Over the same period, the median age in Europe and Northern America is projected to increase from 40 to 46 years. Between now and 2050, 16 countries are expected to reach a median age of 50 years or higher.”

Historically, older persons made up a much smaller share of the population compared to younger age groups, said the report.

As fertility rates drop during demographic transition, the shift in the age structure manifests initially as a swelling share of adults in the working and reproductive ages and falling proportions of children and youth, it said.

If fertility remains at lower levels, the population begins to age and eventually the share of older people starts to rise, the report explained.

A regional review of the evolution of the working-age population shows that it peaked in Europe and Northern America in 2013.

It is projected to peak in 2027 in Eastern and South-Eastern Asia, followed by Latin America and the Caribbean in 2043 and Central and Southern Asia in 2058.

All other regions are expected to experience continued growth in the working-age population through the end of the century, said the report.

The report also said although population ageing is progressing everywhere, younger populations will continue to constitute the largest share of dependents globally even while declining from 33 per cent of the global population in 2021 to around 28 per cent in 2050.

It said that three regions will complete the transition from a high share of youth dependents to a high share of older dependents before 2050, namely, Australia and New Zealand, Europe and Northern America, and Eastern and South-Eastern Asia.

“Latin America and the Caribbean will complete this transition by 2060 and Central and Southern Asia by 2080.”

Populations in sub-Saharan Africa, Oceania (excluding Australia and New Zealand), and Northern Africa and Western Asia will continue to have dominant shares of young dependents through the end of this century, said the report.

The report stressed that ageing societies may face fiscal challenges due to rising health-care, long-term care, retirement and other old-age support costs, combined with a potential reduction in government revenue from fewer working-age taxpayers.

“Addressing these issues starts with making ageing integral to economic development and ensuring that older people can use their expertise and skills in ways that benefit them and the broader economy.”

The report said that governments need to adopt comprehensive strategies aimed at enhancing investments in health and education; fostering labour force participation, particularly among women and older workers; improving labour productivity; and raising fiscal revenue.

Ageing needs to move to the centre of economic development agendas, towards ensuring that economies both thrive and benefit from the expertise and skills of older persons, it added. +