TWN Info Service on UN Sustainable Development (Sept22/02)
23 September 2022
Third World Network

UN: Acute food insecurity to deteriorate further in 19 "hunger hotspots"
Published in SUNS #9652 dated 23 September 2022

Geneva, 22 Sep (Kanaga Raja) -- Acute food insecurity is likely to deteriorate further in 19 countries or situations - called "hunger hotspots" - during the outlook period from October 2022 to January 2023, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the UN World Food Programme (WFP) have said.

In their latest joint "Hunger Hotspots" report, FAO-WFP said that the food crisis is being driven by rising conflict, weather extremes, and economic instability aggravated by the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the ripple effects of the crisis in Ukraine.

According to the recently published Global Report on Food Crisis (GRFC) 2022 Mid-year Update, up to 205 million people are expected to face acute food insecurity and to be in need of urgent assistance (IPC/CH Phase 3 or above or equivalent) in 45 countries.

If additional data from latest available analysis of 2021 is included for 8 countries and territories, this number is estimated to reach up to 222 million people in 53 countries/territories covered by the GRFC 2022.

"This is the highest number recorded in the seven-year history of the report. Around 45 million people in 37 countries are projected to have so little to eat that they will be severely malnourished, at risk of death or already facing starvation and death (IPC/CH Phase 4 and above)," said FAO-WFP.

This includes 970,000 people projected to face Catastrophic conditions (IPC/CH Phase 5) in 2022, if no action is taken, they added.

FAO-WFP said Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Nigeria, South Sudan, Somalia and Yemen remain at the highest alert level, as they all have populations facing or projected to face starvation (Catastrophe, IPC Phase 5) or at risk of deterioration towards catastrophic conditions as they have already critical food insecurity (Emergency, IPC Phase 4) and are facing severe aggravating factors. These countries require the most urgent attention, they added.

"The severe drought in the Horn of Africa has pushed people to the brink of starvation, destroying crops and killing livestock on which their survival depends. Acute food insecurity is rising fast and spreading across the world," said FAO Director-General Mr Qu Dongyu.

"People in the poorest countries in particular who have yet to recover from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic are suffering from the ripple effects of ongoing conflicts, in terms of prices, food and fertilizer supplies, as well as the climate emergency," he added.

Without a massively scaled up humanitarian response that has at its core time-sensitive and life-saving agricultural assistance, the situation will likely worsen in many countries in the coming months, said the FAO chief.

"This is the third time in 10 years that Somalia has been threatened with a devastating famine. The famine in 2011 was caused by two consecutive failed rainy seasons as well as conflict," said Mr David Beasley, Executive Director of WFP.

"Today, we're staring at a perfect storm: a likely fifth consecutive failed rainy season that will see drought lasting well into 2023. But the people at the sharp end of today's crisis are also facing soaring food prices and severely limited opportunities to earn a living following the pandemic," he added.

"We urgently need to get help to those in grave danger of starvation in Somalia and the world's other hunger hotspots," said Mr Beasley.

THE DRIVERS OF FOOD INSECURITY

In issuing their early warning for urgent humanitarian action in the 19 hunger hotspots, FAO-WFP said identified through forward-looking analysis, these 19 hotspots have the potential for acute food insecurity to rise during the outlook period, under the effects of multiple overlapping drivers, interlinked or mutually reinforcing.

"These fall under the categories of organized violence and conflict, economic shocks, weather extremes and climate variability, and animal and plant pests and diseases."

According to the joint report, organized violence and armed conflict are the key drivers of acute food insecurity in Haiti, the Central African Republic, eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, northern Nigeria, Central Sahel, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, the Syrian Arab Republic and Yemen.

Since the start of the year, the number of global violence incidents has followed a steadily increasing trend month to month, with 12,088 events in July compared to 8,668 in January, based on data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, it said.

"The impact of violence on acute food insecurity is likely to continue or intensify in these countries in the outlook period, particularly given stretched government capacities in the context of global debt distress and food and fuel price shocks, putting additional strain on their ability to constrain violence."

Meanwhile, FAO-WFP said continuing high food prices, resulting from supply disruptions related to the war in Ukraine, and the resulting aggravation of acute food insecurity, can constitute a reciprocal driver of violence in various arenas, particularly in the form of food riots.

Despite already unprecedentedly high levels of insecurity, violence in Central Sahel is likely to deteriorate further, given political instability across the region and the withdrawal of foreign counter-insurgency operations from Mali and Burkina Faso, said the joint report.

"With violence spreading to new regions within the Sahel, new waves of forced displacements are likely, adding to the nearly 3 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the region, while further reducing humanitarian access."

In Sudan, FAO-WFP said that inter-ethnic violence, and fighting between rival armed groups, is likely to further worsen, particularly in Darfur, South Kordofan and Blue Nile states, against a backdrop of political deadlock.

Inter-communal violence slightly increased recently in South Sudan, compared to the first quarter of 2022, mostly in Unity, Warrap and Jonglei states, and insecurity is poised to further deteriorate following the United States of America's decision to withdraw from the systems that monitor the peace process, they added.

In the Syrian Arab Republic, a resumption of conflict is possible, with the Government of Turkiye signalling a new military operation against remaining pockets of the Syrian Democratic Forces, which would lead to significant new displacements, said the report.

Conflict continues to disrupt livelihoods in Somalia, particularly in central and southern areas. Al-Shabab has been scaling up attacks and this trend is likely to continue in border regions including with Ethiopia, it added.

"Conflict is among the main drivers of acute food insecurity in these countries. It also tends to play a key role in contexts with some of the highest - critical or catastrophic - levels of acute food insecurity in the world, including Ethiopia, Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan and Yemen, despite an ongoing truce since April 2022."

The ongoing La Nina event, which has been recurring since late 2020, is expected, with at least 60 percent chance, to continue through December 2022 before transitioning to El Nino/Southern Oscillation-neutral conditions in early 2023 (January-March), said FAO-WFP.

"This La Nina event will continue to negatively impact agricultural activities, causing crop and livestock losses in many parts of the world including Afghanistan, Western and Eastern Africa, and the Syrian Arab Republic."

In Afghanistan, the ongoing La Nina is likely to result in below-average rainfall during the upcoming September to February period, coinciding with the wheat-planting and mid-growing season, said the report.

In addition, expected warmer-than-average temperatures and potential low snow-pack in winter could reduce water availability for irrigation. This will come on top of two consecutive dry seasons since late 2020.

Catastrophic monsoon floods hit 116 districts of Pakistan at the end of August, affecting 33 million people. The government declared 72 districts as calamity-hit, with approximately 6.4 million people severely impacted.

Additionally, around 2 million acres of crops/orchards are affected, and there are an estimated 719,000 livestock losses, said the report.

In Eastern Africa, another below-average Deyr season (October-December) is considered highly likely by forecasts.

FAO-WFP said that this would be an unprecedented fifth-consecutive drought in some areas since late 2020.

According to the report, it would be likely to further worsen the food-security situation, particularly in the arid and semi-arid lands of Kenya, southern and central areas of Somalia, and southern and eastern Ethiopia, where the last rainy seasons were extremely poor, with rainfall deficits of up to 70-80 percent in the worst-affected areas.

"In Western Africa, the Sahelian countries, including Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and the Niger, are expected to see continued above-average rainfall until the end of the season in October."

The joint report said that many of these countries have been experiencing flooding since early July, resulting in the displacement and destruction of crop-land and livestock grazing. This is likely to result in reduced yields, and crop and livestock losses.

After partially recovering in 2021 from the pandemic-induced contraction of 2020, the global economy has been facing a new slowdown during the first half of 2022, reflecting the combined impacts of the global fallout of the war in Ukraine, rapid monetary tightening to contain rising inflation rates, and renewed supply-chain disruptions due to COVID-19 outbreaks in China, it added.

"Global growth is expected to remain at a low level throughout 2022 - reaching only 2.9 percent - and 2023."

The mounting risk of recession for several major economies including the European Union, and a risk of prolonged economic slowdown of China, are likely to exacerbate macroeconomic risks for low-income countries, it said.

FAO-WFP said despite softening from the peaks reached in the aftermath of the war in Ukraine, global food prices are likely to stay significantly higher than the previous five-year average during the outlook period.

The FAO Food Price Index was 138.0 points in August, more than 20 points (13.6 percent) below the record level of 159.7 points in March 2022, but still 10 points (6.2 percent) higher compared to the same month of the previous year.

However, domestic food-inflation rates have continued to rise around the world in the last months. In 59 economies, year-on-year food inflation surpassed 15 percent in the most recent available figure of 2022.

At the same time, said the joint report, elevated hydrocarbon prices, while a positive development for hydrocarbon- exporting countries, represent a major burden for households and state budgets of importing countries, adding on energy and transportation bills, boosting national inflation rates and widening current-account deficits.

The price of oil saw a 45 percent increase year-on-year as of August, while the price of natural gas soared by 130 percent.

"While energy prices have entered a slight downturn due to enhanced risks of economic recessions in several major economies, they are expected to remain high over the next months; this will continue to negatively affect inflation and households' purchasing power," said FAO-WFP.

Economies of low-income countries might additionally be struggling with the heavy monetary-tightening measures introduced by central banks in a number of advanced economies, as they can increase the cost of credit, they said.

Particularly exposed are countries with large current-account deficits and high indebtedness levels, said FAO-WFP.

"If foreign-exchange reserves need to be used for debt servicing in these countries, rising credit cost could lead to their depletion, a destabilized currency and ultimately constrained imports of essential items."

Around 60 percent of low-income countries are at high risk of, or already in, debt distress. Consequently, several countries have requested external support from multilateral organizations such as the International Monetary Fund or bilateral donors.

However, the required austerity measures adopted to stabilize economies are also likely to have an adverse impact on households' incomes, said the joint report, adding that these macroeconomic dynamics have led to a rapid food- security deterioration and political instability.

Also, as domestic inflation is not yet under control in many countries, additional hikes to interest rates in advanced economies could further destabilize economies, it cautioned.

"Increasing food and energy prices in several countries are already having extended effects on political stability across all regions in the form of protests, particularly in Southern Africa, Asia and the Middle East. In several instances, such dynamics add to pre-existing political grievances and could exacerbate existing conflicts."

In the Middle East and North Africa, the protracted economic impact of COVID-19 and the repercussions of high international food and energy prices have overlapped with socioeconomic damage caused by the ongoing conflicts in Yemen and the Syrian Arab Republic. This has led to expectations of significant increases in poverty and acute food insecurity, said FAO-WFP.

In Latin America and the Caribbean, lagged effects of COVID-19, coupled with climatic disasters, debilitated the fiscal capacity of governments to respond to new shocks, they added.

"The Haitian economy is expected to remain in a state of crisis in the outlook period, reflecting the weak currency and increasing international food prices. In Guatemala and Honduras, a steep increase in fertilizer prices combined with flooding risks inflationary pressures."

In Asia, renewed supply-chain disruptions and emerging macroeconomic difficulties are affecting the economic stability of several countries such as Sri Lanka, where debt default and financial collapse have spurred a dramatic political crisis, said the joint report.

Similarly, it added, high international commodity prices are putting additional weight on Pakistan's import bill and accelerating the country's fiscal and current account deficit.

"In Afghanistan, the economic contraction that followed the Taliban takeover, coupled with the impact of below- average harvests, is increasing levels of hunger across the country."

FAO-WFP said in nearly all African countries flagged in their report, high food and fuel prices are a key driver of acute food insecurity, with the situation expected to worsen during the outlook period.

"Due to the large fuel and food-import dependencies of many countries, elevated international prices could further destabilize economies," they added. "Ethiopia, Kenya and Malawi are already in macroeconomic distress and struggle with the refinancing of high debt levels and/or an unstable currency. In Zimbabwe, the population is facing triple-digit inflation rates."

Urgent and scaled-up assistance is required in all 19 hunger hotspots, to protect livelihoods and increase access to food. This is essential to avert a further deterioration of acute food insecurity and malnutrition, said FAO-WFP.

In countries with highest concerns, the provision of humanitarian assistance is crucial to save lives and prevent starvation, death and the total collapse of livelihoods (Catastrophe/Famine, IPC/CH Phase 5), they added. +