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Info Service on UN Sustainable Development (Mar22/12) Geneva, 21 Mar (Kanaga Raja) – Up to 90% of the population of Ukraine could be facing poverty and extreme economic vulnerability should the war deepen, setting the country, as well as the region back decades, according to the UN Development Programme (UNDP). In an initial projection released recently, UNDP said that in the event of a continuing, protracted war in Ukraine, 18 years of socio-economic achievements by the country could be lost. “The war in Ukraine is causing unimaginable human suffering with a tragic loss of life and the displacement of millions of people,” said Mr Achim Steiner, UNDP Administrator. He said while the need for immediate humanitarian assistance to Ukrainians is of the utmost importance, the acute development impacts of a protracted war are now becoming more apparent. “An alarming economic decline, and the suffering and hardship it will bring to an already traumatized population must now come into sharper focus. There is still time to halt this grim trajectory,” said Mr Steiner. The UNDP’s initial projections of the development impact of the war in Ukraine suggest that already in the short- to medium term, the development setbacks for Ukraine will be significant. “Poverty and inequalities will rise; the country’s economy, its social fabric, and the environment will suffer,” it said. Early estimates by the Humanitarian Country Team indicate that nearly 30% of the population are likely to require life-saving humanitarian assistance. In its current scale and direction, 18 million people are projected to become affected and more than 7 million people internally displaced, said the UNDP report. According to UNDP, government of Ukraine estimates suggest that at least $100 billion worth of infrastructure, buildings, roads, bridges, hospitals, schools, and other physical assets have been destroyed. The war has caused 50% of Ukrainian businesses to shut down completely, while the other half is forced to operate well below its capacity. UNDP said that if the war deepens and protracts further, up to 90% of the population of Ukraine could be facing poverty and vulnerability to poverty. UNDP said that cognizant of the uncertainties and complexities surrounding the military invasion of Ukraine and constantly changing data sets, it conducted initial partial equilibrium projections of household income in Ukraine, forward projecting the 2019 distribution of per capita household consumption to 2022, to formulate four crisis scenarios for poverty and vulnerability going forward. Focusing solely on income shocks, UNDP said the scenarios assume different levels of GDP contraction depending on the severity of income shocks: 7% in scenario 1, 15% in scenario 2, 20% in scenario 3, and 60% in scenario 4, with the latter being in line with a severe and protracted crisis scenario. UNDP said as of 10 March 2022, the simulations project household monetary poverty impacts to be at least 15% (scenario 2). In this scenario, in 12 months-time, over 6% of the population is expected to be living under a $5.50/day poverty line (in purchasing-power-parity terms). It said this amounts to three times the expected poverty rate had the crisis not occurred, and twice the poverty rate recorded during the Covid-19 pandemic. UNDP said 54% of the population will be living at high risk of falling back into poverty, i.e., under the $13/day vulnerability line. In the event of a continuing and widening protracted crisis, the projections suggest that 90% of the population will be facing poverty or vulnerability to poverty (scenario 4), said UNDP. This projection translates into a loss of 18 years of socio-economic achievements in Ukraine and a return back to poverty levels last observed in 2004, it added. UNDP said that 28% of the population will be living under the $5.50/day poverty line, amounting to 14 times the expected rate had the crisis not occurred. It added that 62% will be living in vulnerability to poverty. UNDP said that based on its long-standing, trusted partnership with the Government of Ukraine at all levels and across many line ministries, it has been working with and through 332 municipalities, 15 networks of civil society organizations and more than 17 business membership organizations across the country. UNDP said that its main concern, among all development partners in Ukraine, is to preserve development gains in Ukraine and support the government in sustaining the governance structure and services during these challenging times. Going forward, UNDP said it is exploring needs and options with the Government of Ukraine and development partners to move towards large-scale emergency multi-purpose cash transfer operations and possibly temporary basic income (TBI) schemes. It said based on and subject to the scenario projections outlined above, the scope and cost of these operations at sufficient scale are calculated initially as follows: An emergency cash transfer system, for example, that covers partial income losses (equivalent to $3.20/day per person) would cost between $250 million per month (PPP) (under scenario 2, covering 2.57 million people) or $352 million per month (PPP) (under scenario 3, covering 3.62 million people). It said a more ambitious temporary basic income (TBI) that provides a basic income floor at $5.50/day per person (regardless of age or household composition) would cost between $430 million and $605 million per month (PPP) for the 2.57-3.62 million people under scenarios 2 and 3. Even the larger of these figures do not exceed approximately 1% of Ukraine’s 2021 GDP in PPP terms, or 4% when measured at market exchange rates and as such, could be financed by the assistance currently being pledged to Ukraine by development partners, said UNDP. “In order to avoid further suffering, destruction and impoverishment, we need peace now,” said Mr Steiner. He said that as part of the United Nations’ unwavering commitment to the Ukrainian people, UNDP’s primary focus is to help preserve hard-won development gains. “That includes supporting the government to sustain critical governance structures and services, which constitute the bedrock of all societies,” he added. UPDATE ON CIVILIAN CASUALTIES Meanwhile, during the period from 24 February when Russia’s armed attack against Ukraine began, to 19 March, the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) has recorded 2,361 civilian casualties in the country. OHCHR said this included: * a total of 902 killed (179 men, 134 women, 11 girls, and 25 boys, as well as 39 children and 514 adults whose sex is yet unknown). * a total of 1,459 injured (156 men, 117 women, 22 girls, and 16 boys, as well as 60 children and 1,088 adults whose sex is yet unknown). In Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine, OHCHR recorded 992 casualties (248 killed and 744 injured). OHCHR said in other regions of Ukraine (the city of Kyiv, and Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk and Zhytomyr regions), which were under Government control when casualties occurred, it recorded 1,369 casualties (654 killed and 715 injured). “Most of the civilian casualties recorded were caused by the use of explosive weapons with a wide impact area, including shelling from heavy artillery and multiple-launch rocket systems, and missile and air strikes,” OHCHR said. OHCHR said that it believes that the actual figures are considerably higher, especially in Government-controlled territory and especially in recent days, as the receipt of information from some locations where intense hostilities have been going on has been delayed and many reports are still pending corroboration. This concerns, for example, Mariupol and Volnovakha (Donetsk region), Izium (Kharkiv region), Sievierodonetsk and Rubizhne (Luhansk region), and Trostianets (Sumy region), where there are allegations of numerous civilian casualties, it added.
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