TWN Info Service on Sustainable Agriculture
12 May 2023
Third World Network

UN: 258 million facing acute food insecurity in 58 countries, says report
Published in SUNS #9780 dated 12 May 2023

Penang, 11 May (Kanaga Raja) — Over a quarter of a billion people were acutely food-insecure and required urgent food assistance in 58 countries and territories in 2022, according to the latest Global Report on Food Crises (GRFC).

The report, produced by the Food Security Information Network (FSIN), said that this is the highest number in the seven-year history of the report.

The findings of the report suggest that achieving the goal of ending hunger by 2030 is ever more challenging as the population facing high levels of acute food insecurity has increased for the fourth consecutive year, it said.

“More than a quarter of a billion people are now facing acute levels of hunger, and some are on the brink of starvation. That’s unconscionable,” said UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in a foreword to the report.

“This seventh edition of the Global Report on Food Crises is a stinging indictment of humanity’s failure to make progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 2 to end hunger, and achieve food security and improved nutrition for all,” he added.

“In fact, we are moving in the wrong direction. Conflicts and mass displacement continue to drive global hunger. Rising poverty, deepening inequalities, rampant underdevelopment, the climate crisis and natural disasters also contribute to food insecurity,” said Mr Guterres.

“As always, it is the most vulnerable who bear the brunt of this failure, facing soaring food prices that were aggravated by the COVID-19 pandemic and, despite some declines, are still above 2019 levels due to the war in Ukraine,’ he added.

According to the report, in 2022, 258 million people faced high levels of acute food insecurity in 58 countries/ territories with available data, up from 193 million in 53 countries in 2021.

It said that this marks the fourth consecutive year of rising numbers of people in Crisis or worse (IPC/CH Phase 3 or above or equivalent) due to the persistently high numbers in some countries/territories, worsening situations in others, as well as increased analysis.

It said between 2021 and 2022, there was a 25 percent increase in the total population analysed and a 34 percent increase in the number of people facing high levels of acute food insecurity, indicating a year-on-year rise in the magnitude of acute food insecurity in the food crises identified in the GRFC.

“The prevalence of the population in IPC/CH Phase 3 or above or equivalent increased from 21.3 percent of the overall analysed population to 22.7 percent between the two years.”

When comparing the same 48 countries/territories analysed in 2021 and 2022, the population facing IPC/CH Phase 3 or above or equivalent increased from 191.4 million people to 228.6 million and the share of people in these phases from 21.8 percent to 22.5 percent in 2022, said the report.

Out of the 58 food-crisis countries included in the GRFC, 42 were identified as major food crises because they had more than 1 million people or 20 percent of the population in IPC Phase 3 or above or equivalent, it added.

In the majority of these, levels of acute food insecurity increased and were the highest in the history of the report while in some numbers were stable or declined, said the GRFC.

It said seven food-crisis countries/territories were included in the report as major food crises for the first time – Colombia (refugees and migrants), Dominican Republic, Guinea, Mauritania, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Lebanon – either because data became newly available or levels of acute food insecurity increased to the extent that they met the inclusion thresholds.

Seven countries/territories had populations in Catastrophe (IPC/CH Phase 5) at some point during 2022, it said, observing that of the 376,000 people in this phase, 57 percent of them were in Somalia and 23 percent in South Sudan.

In Yemen, Afghanistan, Haiti, Nigeria and Burkina Faso, populations in this phase have also been identified in the course of 2022, it added.

The report said in localized parts of Somalia and Yemen, a risk of famine was identified in 2022 according to worst-case scenarios, although it did not materialize in either country.

It said that in Somalia, scaled-up humanitarian assistance and better-than-forecast (though still below average) October-December rains gave the country some respite from the prolonged drought and benefited crops and livestock.

“In Yemen, the return to almost normal functioning of Al Hodeidah port, the truce in hostilities, seasonality and humanitarian assistance prevented a worst-case scenario.”

The population in Emergency (IPC/CH Phase 4) reached 35.0 million people in 39 countries or 4 percent of the analysed population with IPC/CH data, said the report.

Around half of the total population identified in IPC/CH Phase 4 were in four countries, each with more than 3 million people in this phase – Afghanistan, Yemen, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Sudan, the report added.

“In South Sudan, Yemen, Haiti, Afghanistan and the Central African Republic, at least 10 percent of the analysed population was in IPC Phase 4, reaching over 20 percent in South Sudan.”

The report said between 2021 and 2022, the population in IPC/CH Phase 4 increased by more than half a million in six countries: Pakistan (+1.5 million), Nigeria (+0.9 million), Somalia (+0.9 million), Kenya (+0.8 million), Haiti (+0.7 million) and Yemen (+0.6 million).

In relative terms, the population in IPC/CH Phase 4 more than doubled in Kenya, Mali, Mauritania, Pakistan, the Niger, Nigeria and Somalia, it added.

It said eight countries experienced at least 1 million additional people in IPC/CH Phase 3 or above, between 2021 and 2022: Nigeria (+6.5 million), Pakistan (+3.9 million), Somalia (+2.1 million), Kenya (+2 million), the Sudan (+1.9 million), the Niger (+1.8 million), Yemen (+1.2 million) and Malawi (+1.2 million).

In ten countries/territories, 163 million people were in IPC/CH Phase 3 or above or equivalent, the report said, adding that these countries accounted for 63 percent of the total number of people in these phases.

It said that five of these countries – the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Afghanistan, Nigeria (21 states and the Federal Capital Territory, or FCT) and Yemen – accounted for more than 41 percent of the total population in IPC/CH Phase 3 or above or equivalent.

In 2022, the countries with the largest numbers of people in IPC/CH Phase 3 or above included, for the first time, Myanmar (due to newly available data) and Ukraine, the report added.

“In terms of share of the analysed population, in three countries – South Sudan, the Syrian Arab Republic and Yemen – more than 50 percent of the analysed population faced IPC Phase 3 or above or equivalent.”

An additional three countries (Afghanistan, the Central African Republic and Haiti) had more than 40 percent of their population in IPC Phase 3 or above, said the report.

“In addition, selected areas in Angola and Pakistan, and refugee populations in Algeria, Bangladesh, Colombia, Congo, Ecuador, Jordan and Lebanon, had more than 40 percent of the analysed population facing high levels of acute food insecurity.”

DRIVERS OF FOOD CRISES

The food crises profiled in the GRFC are caused by multiple drivers that tend to be mutually reinforcing in most contexts, said the report.

“In 2022, they become even more entangled, in particular for major food crises, and were increasingly driven not only by the occurrence of a shock, but the succession of shocks – particularly the global shocks of the socioeconomic impacts of COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine, with knock-on effects at the national and regional levels.”

In terms of numbers of people facing high levels of acute food insecurity, conflict was still the main driver in 2022. But economic shocks became the main driver in a higher number of countries/territories, said the report.

Conflict/insecurity remained the most significant driver for around 117 million people facing high levels of acute food insecurity in 19 countries/territories, it added.

It said this was 22 million fewer people than in 2021 (139 million people across 24 countries/territories) – largely because economic shocks were considered a more prominent driver in Afghanistan, South Sudan and the Syrian Arab Republic.

“However, the long-term impacts of protracted conflict – as well as pockets of persisting insecurity – in these countries continued to limit livelihood opportunities and agricultural production, particularly for millions of internally displaced people (IDPs).”

Fifteen countries/territories remained primarily affected by conflict/insecurity between the two years mainly in West Africa and the Sahel, and the Middle East, said the report.

Haiti became more prominently affected by insecurity and gang violence in 2022 compared with 2021, it added.

Data became available for Algeria (refugees), Congo (refugees) and Myanmar in 2022 – in all these situations conflict was identified as the primary driver, said the report.

By region, the report said that in Central and Southern Africa, agricultural activities were hampered by insecurity and population displacements in the Central African Republic and in eastern areas of the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

In Mozambique, repeated attacks by non-state armed groups in Cabo Delgado led to a rise in IDPs, who face the highest levels of acute food insecurity, while violent incidents hindered the delivery of essential humanitarian assistance.

In East Africa, the report said that localized conflict continues to affect households particularly across Ethiopia, Somalia, South Sudan and the Sudan.

“In Tigray and Amhara regions of Ethiopia, security improved after the ceasefire agreement in November 2022, but remained volatile, and planting of 2023 crops are likely to be reduced.”

In the Asia region, the report said in Bangladesh, about 1 million Rohingya refugees from Myanmar, who reside mostly in Cox’s Bazar and the island of Bhasan Char, remain highly dependent on humanitarian assistance.

In Afghanistan, although conflict incidents and related population displacement reduced considerably since August 2021, decades of conflict have significantly reduced households’ resilience particularly for the millions still displaced internally, it added.

In Europe, the report said in Ukraine, most of the people in need are located in war zones where disruptions to income-earning activity, interruptions to supply chains, and damage to essential infrastructure, including water and heating, have occurred.

It said economic shocks (including COVID-19 socioeconomic impacts and the ripple effects of the Ukraine war) became the main driver for 83.9 million people in 27 countries – almost tripling the 2021 figure of 30.2 million people and an increase from 21 countries.

“This is the result of successive years of global shocks marked by the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on economies and livelihoods starting in 2020, followed by the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022, which triggered significant food and fertilizer price shocks on international markets, affecting prices at the country level.”

The report said that the economic resilience of poor countries has thus dramatically decreased and they face extended recovery periods and have diminished the ability to cope with future shocks.

Economic shocks became the primary driver in 2022 in four countries in which conflict had been identified as the primary driver in 2021 – Afghanistan, Lebanon, South Sudan and the Syrian Arab Republic, it said further.

For the Sudan, weather extremes were the primary driver in 2021, but economic shocks became more prominent in 2022.

The report said in seven countries in the GRFC 2023 that did not have sufficient evidence last year (Cabo Verde, Colombia (refugees and migrants), Dominican Republic, Ecuador (refugees and migrants), Ghana, Sri Lanka and Togo), economic shocks were the main driver.

In 15 countries, they remained the primary driver in both years, the report added.

Analysing the impact of economic shocks by region, the report said that across the Central and Southern Africa region, high food prices and transport costs, due to the lingering impact of COVID-19 related-restrictions and the ripple effects of war in Ukraine, coupled with very limited employment opportunities, have substantially reduced households’ purchasing power while the elevated international prices of fertilizers, pesticides and herbicides are having negative effects on yields and/or areas planted.

It said that in Malawi and Zambia, national average prices of maize grain reached new all time highs in January 2023, underpinned by tight domestic supplies, currency weakness and high prices of energy that have inflated production and distribution costs.

In Zimbabwe, by December 2022, the annual food inflation rate was estimated at 285 percent, with deep rooted currency weakness amplifying the transmission of elevated global prices to the domestic market, it added.

Countries across the East Africa region – especially Ethiopia, Somalia, South Sudan and the Sudan, affected by conflict and weather extremes – continue to face macroeconomic challenges aggravated by multiple factors including weakening currencies against the dollar, high inflation, and the repercussions of the war in Ukraine, negatively impacting households’ purchasing power and food security, said the report.

In the Asian region, it said that Afghanistan’s economic crisis is widespread, with more than half of households experiencing an economic shock in the second half of 2022.

The drivers of humanitarian needs shifted from COVID-19 and conflict in 2021, to drought, climate change and economic shocks in 2022, it added.

In 2022, vulnerable populations in Sri Lanka were affected by the country’s protracted economic crisis, said the report.

It said in Pakistan and Bangladesh, prices of staple foods were at high levels, underpinned respectively by high agricultural and transportation costs and by considerable slowdown in imports in 2022.

In the Latin America and the Caribbean region, the report said that in Central America, annual food inflation was above 11 percent in El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua.

It said that in Haiti, a succession of crises and increasing violence have paralysed the economy, and sustained currency depreciation provided additional upward pressure on prices of imported items.

It said in South America, the severe and prolonged macroeconomic crisis in Venezuela has created a refugee and migrant crisis of 7.1 million people, with the largest groups in Colombia, Peru and Ecuador.

In the Middle East and North Africa region, the report said in the Syrian Arab Republic, a crippled economy is the main driver of acute food insecurity.

High domestic inflation fuelled by currency depreciation and high import costs has severely eroded purchasing power, it added.

“Lebanon is facing an economic and financial crisis that has undermined the food security of already vulnerable Lebanese and Syrian refugees.”

Yemen’s economy remains frail; according to the World Bank, economic and social prospects remain highly unstable and hinge on a resolution to the conflict.

“Weather extremes were the primary driver of acute food insecurity in 12 countries where 56.8 million people were in IPC/CH Phase 3 or above or equivalent, a doubling in the number of people from 23.5 million in eight countries in 2021,” said the report.

“These extremes included sustained and exceptionally severe drought in the Horn of Africa, devastating flooding in Pakistan, tropical storms and cyclones and drought in Southern Africa.”

Even though the conflict in Tigray remained active until the ceasefire in November 2022, weather extremes were deemed to be the main driver in Ethiopia where the drought affected more people than conflict that year.

The report said weather extremes also became the primary driver in Iraq, Pakistan, Uganda and Zambia. In seven countries, weather extremes were the primary driver in both years.

PROJECTIONS FOR 2023

The report said that according to 2023 projections available for 38 of the 58 countries/territories as of 17 March 2023, up to 153 million people or 18 percent of the analysed population are projected to be in IPC/CH Phase 3 or above or equivalent.

Of them, it said that 24 million people are projected to be in IPC/CH Phase 4 across 34 countries and 310,000 in Catastrophe (IPC/CH Phase 5) across six countries – Burkina Faso, Haiti, Mali, Nigeria (26 states and the FCT), Somalia and South Sudan – with almost three-quarters of them in Somalia.

In Somalia, a risk of famine was still foreseen among agro-pastoral populations in Burhakaba district and IDP settlements in Baidoa (Bay) and Mogadishu (Banadir) in April-June 2023, said the report.

It said in Nigeria (26 states and the FCT), Somalia and Kenya, a total of 8 million additional people are projected to face high levels of acute food insecurity in 2023 compared with 2022.

“In Nigeria, this is primarily due to conflict as well as an increase in geographical coverage, while in Kenya and Somalia it is largely due to the ongoing drought in the Horn of Africa.”

The report said the population in IPC Phase 4 is projected to increase by nearly 1 million people in Nigeria, by 336,000 in Somalia and 165,000 in the Central African Republic.

It said the situation is projected to improve for the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Guatemala, the Niger and the Sudan, with a total of almost 9 million fewer people in IPC/CH Phase 3 or above than in 2022.

However, the report said the onset of clashes between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary forces in mid-April is likely to worsen acute food security conditions as markets and livelihoods have been severely and suddenly disrupted, humanitarian operations halted, and the risk of further internal displacement heightened.

Economic shocks are projected to be the main driver of acute food insecurity in 22 of 38 countries/territories where 60.9-61.6 million people are projected to face high levels of acute food insecurity, said the report.

“Almost the same number of people facing high levels of acute food insecurity are expected as a result primarily of conflict in ten countries, while weather extremes are projected to be the main driver in six countries, where 18 million people are projected to face high levels of acute food insecurity,” it added. +