TWN Info Service on Sustainable Agriculture
23 May 2022
Third World Network

UN: Nearly 20 million Afghans suffering from high acute food insecurity
Published in SUNS #9581 dated 23 May 2022

Geneva, 20 May (Kanaga Raja) – High acute food insecurity persists across Afghanistan, as a combination of a collapsing economy and drought is depriving nearly 20 million Afghans of food between March and May 2022, according to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) findings.

In its latest assessment of the food security situation in Afghanistan, the IPC report said among these nearly 20 million, classified in Crisis or Emergency (IPC Phases 3 or 4), about 6.6 million people are in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and 13 million in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

According to the report, among the key drivers of high levels of acute food insecurity in the country are economic decline, drought, high food prices and the impact of the Ukraine conflict.

It said that rapid reduction in international grant support, loss of access to offshore assets, disruption to financial linkages and impact of the Ukraine crisis have led to a major contraction of the economy, increasing poverty and macroeconomic instability as well as leading to high unemployment and high food and agricultural input prices.

It said that below-average cumulative precipitation during the wet season (2021-2022) accompanied with high agriculture input costs (seed & fertilizers) resulted in a reduced level of winter wheat cultivation, which would likely result in a 7 to 13 percent reduction in the expected wheat harvest compared to the long-term average.

“High prices of commodities compounded by reduced incomes for 97% of the total population have negatively affected the purchasing power of people. The terms of trade of casual labour against wheat prices have fallen by 35% compared with June 2021,” said the report.

Afghanistan typically has a deficit in cereals production (against consumption requirements) and relies on imports to meet their food demand, it said, adding that in 2021/2022, the cereal import requirement is expected to be 20% higher than average.

“The negative impact of the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine is expected to further raise global food prices, while placing pressure on countries in the region supplying wheat to Afghanistan to place export bans on food, giving priority to their respective domestic consumption.”

OVERVIEW OF CURRENT SITUATION (MARCH-MAY 2022)

The report said that in the current period (March-May 2022), 19.7 million (47% of the analysed population) were estimated to be in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or above. This includes 20,324 people in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe), 6.6 million people (16%) in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and 13 million (31%) in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).

The report said of the 45 analytical domains analysed (34 rural and 11 urban), 17 analytical domains, including 13 rural (Badakhshan, Badghis, Balkh, Bamyan, Daykundi, Faryab, Ghor, Jawzjan, Nimroz, Nuristan, Samangan, Uruzgan and Wardak) and four urban (Jawzjan urban, Kandahar urban, Nangarhar urban, and Takhar urban) were classified in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency).

It said of high concern in particular is the disruption of HFA (Humanitarian Food Assistance) in the province of Ghor that has contributed to the unprecedented classification of 20,000 people in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe).

Ghor is one of the most remote, chronically food insecure and vulnerable provinces of Afghanistan. It is mostly mountainous with limited flat or arable land.

Due to access challenges, the report said the two districts of Charsada and Passaband did not receive any assistance during the current period until the end of March.

The report said the districts also show the highest levels of food insecurity outcomes in the province. The severity of the situation is only partially mitigated by the unprecedented surge of humanitarian assistance that covers 38% of the total population of Afghanistan in the current period.

In the absence of such assistance, the magnitude and severity of needs would be dramatically higher, it added.

The current period (March-May 2022) corresponds to the peak of the lean season before the winter wheat harvest.

Most households have already depleted their stock from the previous harvest, considering drought translated into a harvest below the long-term average, said the report.

According to the Pre-Lean Season Assessment (PLSA), on average, cereal stocks from the previous harvest lasted less than 4 months.

“This early depletion of stocks pushed households to rely primarily on markets for their food needs, with the vast majority of households (88%) reporting purchase from market as the main source of cereals, while only 7% relied on own production for cereal consumption,” said the report.

“This high dependency on markets further increases households’ vulnerability considering the record high food prices observed.”

WFP monthly market monitoring data (April 2022) showed that, compared to June 2021, price of wheat increased by 45%, wheat flour by 49%, rice by 20%, cooking oil by 32%, pulses by 23% and sugar by 25%.

The increase in prices was mainly due to the Afghani currency having lost 12% of its value against the US dollar in less than one year.

Additional pressure on prices will be generated from the ongoing Ukraine conflict, which further raised global food, fuel and fertilizer prices, while also increasing regional competition for commodities, said the report.

For the current period, although no complete ban on the export of wheat has been imposed by Afghanistan’s major trade partners, the situation remains volatile and requires strict monitoring, it added.

It said that the overall decrease in affordability of food is indicated through falling terms of trade of casual labour against wheat prices: compared with June 2021 these decreased by 35%; while the terms of trade for livestock have decreased by 26%.

“To further compound the situation, the PLSA indicated a significant reduction in income for 80% of surveyed households and an increase in debt. In fact, almost 40% of the surveyed households purchased cereals on credit.”

Around 92% of households reported having debt, and 88% of them cited food purchase as the main reason for borrowing, said the report.

With the increasing dependency on the market due to significantly lower production and increased prices, the level of debt is expected to increase, further constraining households and limiting their economic recovery, it added.

The report said almost the totality (97%) of households reported that their income levels had decreased compared to the same period last year, with reduced employment opportunities and loss of jobs being the main causes.

Moreover, the abovementioned issues are compounded by the economic shock due to the collapse of the government that caused a major disruption to livelihoods, especially in urban areas, it added.

Recent employment prospects assessment in Afghanistan by the International Labour Organization (ILO) shows that the ensuing crisis has paralyzed the economy and continues to have dire impacts on the labour market.

More than half a million workers in the formal sectors are estimated to have lost their job in the third quarter of 2021, relative to a hypothetical scenario with no change in the administration, which represents 8 percent fewer working women and men.

“The impact on female employment is severe. In the absence of any substantial policy shift, female employment losses are expected to increase to 21 per cent by mid-2022,” said the report.

As a result of this economic collapse, UNDP estimates that more than 90% of the Afghanistan population will fall below the poverty line by the middle of 2022 in a worst case scenario.

PROJECTED SITUATION (JUNE-NOVEMBER 2022)

For the projection analysis period (June to November 2022), corresponding to the harvest and post-harvest season, the total population facing high and critical levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 and above) is expected to only minimally decrease (2%) from 19.7 million in current period to 18.9 million (45% of the analysed population), the report said.

“No province or urban centre analysed have been classified in IPC Phase 2 (Stressed) or IPC Phase 1 (Minimal). Most of the twelve areas classified in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) in the current period will remain in this phase, with only slight changes in population during the projection period.”

The report said the economic outlook for Afghanistan continues to be bleak. According to the IMF, Afghanistan’s economy may contract up to 30% this year with falling imports, a depreciating Afghani currency, and accelerating inflation.

“This would have major impacts on the living standards of the Afghan population and push millions more people into poverty.”

UNDP’s economic outlook for Afghanistan estimates the per capita income will fall from 500 US dollars in 2020 to 350 US dollars in 2022 if economic conditions continue along the current trends.

The impact of the sudden disruption of more than 4 billion dollars in development projects is expected to continue in the projection period, said the report.

Some mild mitigation will be observed as some suspended projects are in the process of partial resumption. Despite the criticality of these funds to resume for the kick-start of the Afghan economy, the extent of the mitigating impact and timeline of the resumption remain unclear, and the weight of this potential mitigation factor is assumed to be limited under the current scenario, it added.

“The likely impact of the continued disruption of development funding is adding to the limited improvement in the post-harvest period (projection).”

The de facto authorities have effectively banned girls from secondary education by ordering high schools to re-open only for boys and denying girls the right to continue their education, the report noted.

The report said the move has drawn international condemnation, and further affected development funding trends.

Government employees’ salary payments by de facto authorities will continue as in the current period – at a lower rate and excluding former Afghan National Forces, it added.

The report said unemployment will continue at high levels, with the closure of private sectors, reduced foreign aid, closure of businesses and government institutions continuing to affect the urban population, especially women.

Overall below-average precipitation during the winter wheat cultivation combined with the high agriculture input costs (seed & fertilizers) resulted in the reduction in the area cultivated for wheat, it noted.

Despite an improvement of precipitation levels in January reducing rainfall deficits in some parts of the country, the main wheat producing area in the country (North and North-east) as well as Central Highland, North-West regions and Zabul province in the South-east received insufficient precipitation.

At the national level, preliminary wheat production estimates indicated this would be 7-13% below average, it said, adding, however, that this estimate is currently under revision as it is considered too optimistic.

The report also said especially for non-farming households, financial access to food will remain a main challenge.

Prices of food commodities are historically high and will likely follow an increasing trend or will stabilise at a high rate.

The continuation of the Ukraine and Russia crisis is expected to have major implications for food, fuel and fertilizer supply and prices globally, said the report.

Both countries are major contributors to the world wheat market (17% and 12%, respectively) and sunflower oil market (28% and 50%), therefore any constraint in the export of these two commodities is likely to affect global prices with a ripple effect in Afghanistan.

Although Afghanistan is dependent on Kazakhstan for wheat imports, the sanctions/restrictions is already affecting the demand for Kazakhstan wheat in Central Asia.

With the deterioration of economic conditions in Afghanistan and limited foreign currency reserves, the financial ability of the private sector to procure wheat from international markets remains uncertain, said the report.

It said the persisting severity for domains where people rely on markets for food supply is corroborated by the fact that three of the four urban areas classified in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) in the current period will have the same classification in the projection period.