THIRD WORLD NETWORK INFORMATION SERVICE ON SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE

United Nations: Acute food insecurity hits five-year high, says report
Published in SUNS #9344 dated 11 May 2021

Geneva, 10 May (Kanaga Raja) -  At least 155 million people were acutely food insecure and in need of urgent assistance in 55 countries/territories in 2020, representing an increase of nearly 20 million people since 2019, and the highest level reached in five years.

This is one of the main findings of the 2021 Global Report on Food Crises, launched by the Global Network Against Food Crises, which was founded by the European Union, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) at the 2016 World Humanitarian Summit.

According to the report, conflict, or economic shocks that are related to COVID-19 along with extreme weather, are continuing to push millions of people into acute food insecurity.

In a joint statement on the report, the EU, the FAO and WFP, together with USAID, said that one year after the declaration of the COVID-19 pandemic, the outlook for 2021 and beyond is grim.

"Conflict, pandemic-related restrictions fueling economic hardship and the persistent threat of adverse weather conditions will likely continue driving food crises," they said.

"The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed the fragility of the global food system and the need for more equitable, sustainable and resilient systems to nutritiously and consistently feed 8.5 billion people by 2030. A radical transformation of our food systems is needed to achieve the SDGs," they added.

According to the report, while conflict continues to displace people, disrupt livelihoods and damage economies, the COVID-19 pandemic and related containment measures have exacerbated pre-existing drivers of fragility, widened inequalities and exposed structural vulnerabilities of local and global food systems, hitting the most economically vulnerable households particularly hard.

"The shocks come amid the frequent threat of weather extremes that result in crop and livestock losses, destroy homes and displace people," said the report.

"Together and separately, such shocks - especially when persistent or recurrent - drive millions of people to lose their livelihoods and lack adequate food. These shocks also increase the risk of all forms of malnutrition, and, in the most extreme cases, cause death," it added.

OVERVIEW OF GLOBAL FOOD CRISES

According to the report, around 155 million people were in Crisis or worse (IPC/CH Phase 3 or above*) or equivalent in 55 countries/territories in 2020.

(* The data are based on the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) and the Cadre Harmonise (CH). Populations in Crisis (IPC/CH Phase 3), Emergency (IPC/CH Phase 4) and Catastrophe (IPC/CH Phase 5) are those in need of urgent action.)

The number of people in Crisis or worse (IPC/CH Phase 3 or above) in 2020 was nearly 20 million higher than in 2019 (134.7 million in 55 countries/territories), said the report.

The additional people were mainly in 12 food crises: the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Syrian Arab Republic, with around 6 million more each; Nigeria (15 states and the Federal Capital Territory) and the Sudan, with around 4 million more each; Afghanistan, Burkina Faso and Honduras, all with around 2 million more each; and Burundi, Cameroon, Mozambique, Sierra Leone and Uganda, all with about 1 million more each.

Around 21 percent of the analyzed population was in Crisis or worse (IPC/CH Phase 3 or above) or equivalent in 2020, up from 16.5 percent in 2019, said the report.

Out of the 47 million children suffering from wasting globally, 15.8 million were in these 55 food crises. Out of the 144 million children affected by stunting globally, 75.2 million were in the 55 food crises.

In South Sudan, the number of people in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) increased from zero in May-July 2020 to 92,000 in October-November 2020, and increased further to 105,000 in six counties by December.

In Yemen, around 16,500 people were in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in the last quarter of 2020 in five districts in the governorates of Al Jawf and Hajjah, driven by conflict, displacement and limited humanitarian access, and Amran, where highly vulnerable marginalized groups lack access to public services.

Burkina Faso's crisis worsened by mid-2020 when around 11,400 people - partially or completely cut off from humanitarian assistance - were in Catastrophe (CH Phase 5).

An additional 208 million people were in Stressed (IPC/CH Phase 2) in 43 countries/territories with IPC/CH analyses in 2020 and required action for disaster risk reduction and to protect livelihoods, said the report.

In 2020, 28.4 million people were in Emergency or worse (IPC/CH Phase 4 or above) in 38 out of 43 countries with IPC/CH analyses.

The report said the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Afghanistan, Yemen, the Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Haiti and Zimbabwe each had more than 1 million people in Emergency or worse (IPC/CH Phase 4 or above), accounting for 75 percent of the global total number in these phases.

The three worst global food-crises - the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Yemen and Afghanistan - accounted for nearly half of the total in Emergency or worse (IPC/CH Phase 4 or above).

In 23 of these 38 countries, the number of people in Emergency or worse (IPC/CH Phase 4 or above) increased between 2019 and 2020.

The biggest increases were in the Democratic Republic of the Congo with a 1.8 million increase, Afghanistan (1.6 million) and the Sudan (1.1 million).

The report said although their populations in Emergency or worse (IPC/CH Phase 4 or above) were comparatively low, three West African countries saw large percentage increases: Burkina Faso (1,689 percent), Sierra Leone (840 percent) and Chad (521 percent).

In six countries - the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Afghanistan, Yemen, Haiti and Zimbabwe - over 10 percent of the population analyzed was in Emergency or worse (IPC Phase 4 or above), reaching 16 percent in the Central African Republic.

"Although there are no estimates for the populations in Emergency or worse (IPC/CH Phase 4 or above) in the Syrian Arab Republic or Palestine, both countries/territories had around 1.3 million severely food-insecure people according to WFP."

The report said that for the Syrian Arab Republic, this represented six percent of the population analyzed and for Palestine, it represented 24 percent.

REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE

According to the report, in 2020, Africa remained the continent most affected by food crises, accounting for 63 percent of the global total number of people in Crisis or worse (IPC/CH Phase 3 or above) or equivalent, up from 54 percent in 2019.

The number of people in Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or above) or equivalent in Central and Southern Africa was the highest on the continent at 40.2 million, up from 32.2 million in 2019.

"This increase is partly explained by the economic impact of COVID-19 and protracted conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo as well as increased analysis coverage," said the report.

In East Africa, 32.9 million people were in Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or above), 75 percent of them in the Sudan, Ethiopia and South Sudan.

In West Africa and the Sahel, 24.8 million people were in Crisis or worse (CH Phase 3 or above) or equivalent - almost double the number of 2019 largely due to intensifying conflict, mass displacement and the economic impact of COVID-19, it added.

Eurasia accounted for 29 percent of the global total number of people in Crisis or worse (IPC/CH Phase 3 or above) or equivalent.

In the Middle East, 29.4 million people were in Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or above) or equivalent in four conflict-affected countries/territories (Iraq, Palestine, the Syrian Arab Republic and Yemen) as well as refugee populations (mainly Syrian) in Egypt, Jordan, Iraq and Lebanon.

In South Asia (Afghanistan, Cox's Bazar in Bangladesh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province in Pakistan), 15.6 million people were in Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or above) or equivalent.

In Central America (El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua) and Haiti, over 11.8 million people were in Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or above), a dramatic increase since 2019 due to increasing analysis coverage as well as deteriorating food crises linked to repeated weather extremes and economic fallout from COVID-19 on fragile economies, said the report.

TEN WORST FOOD CRISES

According to the report, in the 10 worst food crises, over 103 million people were in Crisis or worse (IPC/CH Phase 3 or above) or equivalent, representing 66 percent of the total number.

For the third consecutive year, three conflict-affected countries - the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Yemen and Afghanistan - had the largest populations in Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or above), it said.

These three, plus the Syrian Arab Republic, accounted for nearly 40 percent of the total global population in Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or above).

In these 10 worst food crises - in terms of numbers of people in Crisis or worse (IPC/CH Phase 3 or above) - there were around 121,500 in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in South Sudan (105,000) and Yemen (16,500).

Afghanistan, Haiti, South Sudan, the Syrian Arab Republic, Yemen and Zimbabwe all had at least 40 percent of their analyzed population in Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or above).

Nine of these 10 crises - Yemen, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Afghanistan, Ethiopia, the Sudan, the Syrian Arab Republic, Nigeria (15 states and the Federal Capital Territory), South Sudan and Haiti - were also among the 10 food crises with the highest numbers of people in Crisis or worse (IPC/CH Phase 3 or above) in 2019, said the report.

Although Venezuela was among the 10 worst food crises in 2019, there was insufficient evidence to include it in 2020, while Zimbabwe qualified as one of the 10 worst food crises in 2020, the report added.

Women and children living in food-crisis countries are especially vulnerable to malnutrition. In total, 7.2 million children suffered from wasting in the 10 worst food crises and 31.9 million suffered from stunting, said the report.

The highest levels of child wasting were in Yemen, the Sudan and South Sudan, each with a prevalence of around 16 percent. In Yemen, wasting levels reached 31 percent in some governorates.

The world's two worst food crises had very high levels of child stunting with 46.4 percent of children under 5 years stunted in Yemen and 42 percent in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Despite movement restrictions and the closure of international borders due to the COVID-19 pandemic, millions of people were internally displaced or sought refuge abroad in 2020, mainly due to conflict or, to a lesser extent, weather extremes, said the report.

Out of the world's 46 million people internally displaced, nearly 30 million were in the eight worst global food crises.

The four countries with the highest number of people in Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or above) - the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Yemen, Afghanistan and the Syrian Arab Republic - were among the world's five countries with the highest number of internally displaced people.

Despite having to contend with their own major displacement crises, eight of the 10 worst food-crisis countries were also hosting refugees/asylum seekers fleeing conflict from neighbouring countries, said the report.

"The largest numbers were hosted in the Sudan and Ethiopia followed by the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Syrian Arab Republic, South Sudan and Yemen and relatively small numbers in Afghanistan and Nigeria."

After several months of growing political tensions, the situation in the Tigray region of Ethiopia escalated in early November leading to immediate and large-scale forced displacement into east Sudan.

More than one in three of the world's 30.5 million refugees and asylum seekers originated from three of the worst food crises - the Syrian Arab Republic (6.7 million), Afghanistan (3.0 million) and South Sudan (2.3 million), the report added.

Large numbers of refugees and asylum seekers originated from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (973,000), the Sudan (842,000), Nigeria (425,000) and Ethiopia (225,000).

In 2020, the food security and livelihoods of already vulnerable forcibly displaced households became significantly more tenuous due to the COVID-19 pandemic, said the report.

Displaced populations are disproportionately dependent on informal sector jobs and lack access to host countries' social safety nets, it added.

MAJOR DRIVERS OF FOOD CRISES

According to the report, in 2020, conflict/insecurity, weather extremes, and economic shocks, including COVID-19 related economic effects again constituted the three primary drivers of acute food insecurity.

It said almost 100 million people were in Crisis or worse (IPC/CH Phase 3 or above) or equivalent in 23 countries/ territories where conflict was the main driver.

In spite of movement restrictions to contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, conflict situations worsened in a number of countries, intensifying food crises in these contexts, it added.

"Conflict drove internal and cross-border displacement, deprived people of their livelihoods, disrupted markets, trade and crop production, prevented herders from accessing their pasture-lands and contributed to high food prices."

Insecurity also constrained humanitarian access, leaving communities without essential assistance and exposing aid workers to increased risks, it said.

Protracted conflict was the main driver of six of the 10 worst food crises - the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Yemen, Afghanistan, the Syrian Arab Republic, Nigeria (15 states and Federal Capital Territory) and South Sudan - with the number of IDPs (internally displaced persons) increasing in all six countries in 2020.

All countries that had populations in Catastrophe (IPC/CH Phase 5) in 2020 - Burkina Faso, South Sudan and Yemen - were affected by conflict/insecurity.

More than 60 percent of the total population in Emergency (IPC/CH Phase 4) were in countries in which conflict was the main driver.

The report said economic shocks were a more significant driver of food crises in 2020 as the indirect impact of COVID-19 exacerbated fragilities.

"They became the primary driver of acute food insecurity for over 40 million people in Crisis or worse (IPC/CH Phase 3 or above) in 17 countries in 2020, up from around 24 million people in eight countries in 2019."

The socioeconomic impact of COVID-19 added further hardship in some of the worst food crises, such as Haiti, the Sudan and Zimbabwe, in which economic shocks had already been identified as the main driver in 2019.

"The varying measures to contain COVID-19 sharply curbed domestic economic activities, resulting in significant job and income losses, particularly in the informal sector, where limited social protection programmes existed to buffer the impact of income shocks," said the report.

Unemployment increased significantly in urban areas where the industries most affected by the pandemic were largely located and many were engaged in the informal sector, it added.

External demand for tourism services and many primary commodities (such as oil and metals) that provide essential sources of revenue, declined.

"A reduction in remittances and net inflows of capital and aid, as well as reduced investments due to uncertainty were added strains on countries' tight financial resources," said the report.

As a result of the job losses in advanced economies, remittance inflows declined and further cut households' incomes.

An additional 119-124 million people were expected to fall into extreme poverty in 2020 using the USD 1.90 poverty line, it added.

Although most food crises were affected by weather extremes in 2020, their impact was relatively lower than the other two main drivers, said the report.

Weather extremes nevertheless remained the primary driver of acute food insecurity in 15 countries with around 16 million people in Crisis or worse (IPC/CH Phase 3 or above) or equivalent in 2020.

In 2019, they constituted the primary driver in 25 countries with around 34 million people in Crisis or worse (IPC/CH Phase 3 or above).

"This is partly explained by the fact that in 10 countries - including Ethiopia - economic shocks (including COVID- 19) became the primary driver of the food crisis rather than weather extremes, which nevertheless remained significant in 2020," the report added.

FORECAST FOR 2021

According to the report, over 142 million people in 40 out of the 55 countries/territories are forecast to be in Crisis or worse (IPC/CH Phase 3 or above) or equivalent in 2021.

Through mid-2021, around 155,000 people will likely face Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in South Sudan (108, 000) and Yemen (47, 000).

According to the report, high levels of acute food insecurity will persist in countries with protracted conflicts by limiting access to livelihoods and agricultural fields, uprooting people from their homes, and increasing displaced populations' reliance on humanitarian aid for their basic needs.

It said even if there is some hope that peace negotiations or cease-fires may lead to a reduction in violence and improvement in security conditions in some countries in 2021, economic recovery from protracted conflict takes years.

"With the COVID-19 pandemic still not under control, many households will face reduced incomes associated with limited labour wage opportunities and delays in payment of government employee salaries."

If there is no improvement, the economic consequences may become more severe as the year progresses, said the report.

In net food-importing countries, weakening currencies will continue to push up food prices and further curtail purchasing power.

High levels of government debt stress could impinge on longer-term development policies that would potentially undermine economic recoveries, stalling improvements in food security and equality, it added.

According to the report, drier-than-average weather conditions are expected during the March-May rainfall season in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia with a negative impact on range-land and crops.

"Coupled with persisting threat of desert locust infestations - already causing damage to crops and range-land in southern and south-eastern Ethiopia, central and northern Kenya and Somalia - this could result in below-average crop and livestock production, reducing agricultural labour income, restricting food and milk consumption, increasing resource-based conflict and driving up cereal prices in the Horn of Africa."

In early 2021, dryness prevailed in Iraq and particularly in southern and western Afghanistan, underpinned by the La Nina meteorological phenomenon, said the report.