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Climate-related migration a reality in South Asia Over 60 million people are at risk of displacement by 2050 just due to slow-onset impacts of climate change, finds a study on climate-related migration across South Asia. Indrajit Bose MALEKA, a 16-year-old from Miarchar village in Bangladesh, wanted to be a teacher, but she ended up as a domestic help in Dhaka to help her family in the village tide over one crisis after the next. Floods and unusually heavy rainfall have repeatedly damaged Maleka’s house in the village. On one occasion, while trying to fix the house, her father suffered an injury, rendering him immobile. Her mother is afflicted with health issues which do not permit her to work. Food shortage, lack of basic needs and sanitation, and diseases stare the family of seven in the face, as do debts. Maleka had to drop out of school and move out to find menial work. ‘My dream does not matter anymore. God had a different plan perhaps,’ she says. In Afghanistan, 50-year-old Ali Mohammad lives in the Shaiday camp in Herat province. He moved to the camp following the 2019 floods in Afghanistan, which claimed his house, his son and two daughters. Mohammad moved to Shaiday camp with his lone surviving daughter. Their trauma persists. Mohammad lacks motivation to find regular work and his daughter hardly ever steps out of the tent. They survive on bare minimum support from external agencies. ‘I am grateful for the support I receive, but it is not enough to cover the basic human needs for my daughter and me. We go mostly cold and hungry,’ says Mohammad. In Pakistan, 37-year-old Rajo has moved to three different locations in the past three years due to severe drought in the country’s Tharparkar district. She has had to move to earn money to avoid starvation and in the process has undergone immense mental and physical trauma. ‘I was seven months pregnant when we migrated to earn money. I worked as a labourer and lifted weight, which caused a miscarriage. We had to borrow money from the landowner to pay for my medical bills. We faced many problems when migrating, our children got ill, and then we had to spend our earnings on their health and travel fares,’ says Rajo. These stories of Maleka, Mohammad and Rajo have come to light following studies on climate-change-related migration in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka by ActionAid and Climate Action Network-South Asia (CAN-SA). The studies carried out in the six South Asian countries have revealed several such stories of suffering as climate change impacts continue to wreak havoc on people’s lives in the region – people are getting displaced due to extreme weather events as well as drought and sea-level rise. A related policy note published states: ‘Cities in the region are running out of water; people are getting sicker or poorer; they are losing incomes and livelihoods and, in many cases, even their homes. Sometimes, they are left with no choice but to move to survive. Sometimes, they pay with their lives.’1 Increased displacement linked to climate impacts South Asia is a disaster hotspot. Temperatures and sea levels are rising; cyclones are striking with fiercer intensity; glaciers are melting; and stories of floods and droughts abound. While the region is already experiencing some of the highest fatalities due to extreme weather conditions, future projections see South Asia as an epicentre of extreme weather, afflicted by a combination of unsurvivable heatwaves, chronic droughts, rising sea levels and intensified cyclones. The South Asian study, ‘Costs of climate inaction: displacement and distress migration’, which modelled climate change projections related to migration linked to slow-onset impacts (sea-level rise, water stress, crop yield reductions, ecosystem loss, and drought), found that even if the global community acted on their greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation pledges and targets, about 37.4 million people would still be displaced by 2030 and an estimated 62.9 million by 2050 in five countries in South Asia (Afghanistan was excluded from this assessment).2 The World Meteorological Organization (WMO)’s Statement on the State of Global Climate in 2019 revealed that the global mean temperature for 2019 was around 1.1°C higher relative to the pre-industrial period. Current global pledges and targets see us on track for a rise of between 2.1°C and 3.3°C in global mean temperature. The South Asian study also reveals that undertaking more ambitious action for meeting the Paris Agreement goals of limiting global warming to between 1.5°C and 2°C would restrict the number of people displaced or driven to move to about 22.5 million people by 2030 and roughly 34.4 million people by 2050, and prevent at least 44.5 million people having to flee their homes by 2050. ‘These numbers do not include those who are likely to be displaced by sudden onset climate disasters such as flooding and cyclones, to which South Asia is particularly vulnerable. These numbers also assume that countries will start taking action towards meeting their pledges and targets,’ the study states. ‘Our country-level research in these five countries shows that climate change is either directly displacing people or accentuating hardship resulting in distress migration. Rivers eroding banks in Bangladesh, flooding in Pakistan and India, melting glaciers in Nepal, rising seas in India and Bangladesh, periods of unusually dry months followed by heavier than normal rains on rice and tea estates in Sri Lanka, or cyclones and inhospitable temperatures across all countries are contributing to climate-induced migration,’ the study states. According to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC)’s latest Global Report on Internal Displacement 2020 (GRID 2020), there were over 9.5 million newly displaced people in 2019 due to disasters in South Asia, the highest figure since 2012. South Asia accounted for 38.3% of the global total number of displacements in 2019. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s Special Report on Climate Change, Desertification, Land Degradation, Sustainable Land Management, Food Security, and Greenhouse Gas Fluxes in Terrestrial Ecosystems also speaks to the issue. ‘Climate change can amplify environmentally-induced migration both within countries and across borders, reflecting multiple drivers of mobility and available adaptation measures,’ the report states. The report also warns that ‘extreme weather and climate or slow-onset events may lead to increased displacement, disrupted food chains, threatened livelihoods, and contribute to exacerbated stresses for conflict’. Reports also say people will suffer ‘stress and mental trauma’ from displacement and loss of livelihoods and property. According to a 2020 study by McKinsey Global Institute, ‘without strong mitigation and adaptation measures, slow-onset climate impacts could cause countries in South Asia to lose nearly 2 per cent of their GDP by 2050, rising to a loss of nearly 9 per cent by 2100, without counting for losses due to extreme weather events. Other estimates acknowledge that people living in poverty will be hardest hit by climate hazards, and countries in South Asia could see 7-13 per cent of their GDP at risk every year by 2050’. Impact on women The studies in the countries also found that women and girls are especially impacted by climate change and deeply rooted gender norms would make this worse in the future. Studies have also found that women are more likely to be killed by extreme weather events in countries where their socioeconomic status is below that of men. Women end up with less social, material and environmental options and coping mechanisms to respond to climate impacts. For instance, when crop yields are impacted by droughts and floods, established food hierarchies translate into women and girls getting food last, if at all. ‘Women’s mental and physical health suffer and they are exposed to heightened risks of violence during times of climate related shocks and stressors. Their lack of land ownership, productive assets, and access to credit and information, among other rights, makes them particularly vulnerable to crop failures or other climate-related impacts. In addition, women in South Asia face several socio-cultural and economic barriers that make them less prepared for disasters. Lower participation in household or financial decision-making, lack of mobility, and exposure to insecurity or gender violence only increases their vulnerability to the impacts of climate disasters,’ the study states. When evacuated to flood shelters or embankments during flooding in Bangladesh or India, for example, women described lack of privacy and security as an issue during field research for the study. In drought-affected areas of Pakistan, women talked about having to go longer distances to fetch water, increasing their work burden. Lack of maternal and child health facilities following flooding events in Pakistan was also noted. In Nepal, women in flood-affected districts shared that in the absence of male members, who often migrate for work, women find life very difficult back at home. They are left behind to take care of household chores and agricultural activities, look after children and the elderly, and manage livestock. Doing all this single-handedly is often a struggle for them. This is further aggravated by their exclusion from existing social protection schemes or policy frameworks. Climate justice for the poor in South Asia Historically, South Asia has contributed less than 5% of historical cumulative emissions to the climate crisis, despite making up a fourth of the global population, the study states. Yet, at the same time, it faces some of the most steep climate change impacts, including those that result in displacement and distress migration. This requires an approach to mitigation that is just and fair. ‘Wealthy countries with the greatest historical responsibility for causing the climate crisis need to implement just transitions to radically transform their energy, agricultural, construction, transport and economic systems to bring their emissions down sharply, and provide international climate finance, in order to do their fair share of action towards meeting the 1.5°C target. Developed countries are currently failing. The EU and USA are only contributing to about 1/5th of their fair share of mitigation effort. This failure will drive distress migration and extreme hardship in South Asia and across developing countries,’ the study states. The study also states that global efforts towards achieving the 1.5°C warming limit – as well as adaptation funding – must be equitable and consistent with the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)’s principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. It cites an example of the inequity by stating that the annual emissions footprint of an average US citizen is over 51 times greater than that of the average Nepali citizen. ‘Genuine and ambitious reductions in accordance with historical responsibility for addressing industrialised countries’ climate debt [are] necessary,’ the study states. A number of challenges exist at the national level as well. The road ahead The movement of people at present takes place largely without targeted support. That millions of people will continue to be displaced regardless of climate action is already established – but this will require strong social policies to protect the right to move with dignity, the study states. The study calls for strengthening social protection schemes in the countries and ensuring universal access so that the rights of all are protected, regardless of their exposure to climate and other shocks. ‘Financing the level of social protection required and ensuring universal access will need a significant re-shifting of state budgetary priorities, from the creation of sovereign wealth funds to debt relief on an international scale,’ the study states. That migration cannot be directly attributed to climate change is also a concern, especially in terms of financing and designing interventions. For people who cannot cope with the impacts of climate change and move due to better income opportunities, such migrants are often generically termed ‘economic migrants’, since it is difficult to establish a direct causal relationship between migration and climate change. Data is often limited, and it is not always possible to attribute an extreme rainfall event or a drought to climate change. Therefore, it is difficult to establish people being displaced due to such events as ‘climate migrants’. This points to the need for more robust research rather than being in denial that climate-related migration occurs, the study states. The study also points to several instances where even after moving, families may not necessarily be safe. Several community members especially in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan who had already experienced displacement and migration, spoke of significant social hardships at the destination. The study calls for justice-centred disaster preparedness and risk management and reduction policies. ‘Disaster response must also be designed to ensure gender sensitive relocation. Pregnant women must be ensured sufficient nourishment, and women unable to breastfeed must receive formula milk or other appropriate alternatives. Therefore, gender appropriate health and social care must be available with temporary shelters,’ the study states. The study also recommends that the South Asian governments can ‘support rural communities to adopt more agroecological approaches to farming in ways that can strengthen resilience by using natural materials instead of chemicals to improve the health and water carrying capacity of soils, diversify locally adapted seeds and crops and combat pests and disease’. The study recommends that loss and damage should be addressed and those on the frontline of climate change impacts within South Asia, that is, the poor who contribute minimally to GHG emissions, should not be left to pay for a crisis they did not cause. ‘Wherever it is possible to guarantee non-repetition of losses and damages (through improved infrastructure development, social protection and disaster preparedness, for example) communities could be safely returned to their homes. There is also the opportunity to increase resilience upon return,’ the study states. u Indrajit Bose is a senior researcher with the Third World Network. Notes 2. https://cansouthasia.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/SouthAsia_ClimateMigration_regional.pdf *Third World Resurgence No. 347, 2021, pp 24-26 |
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