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THIRD WORLD
RESURGENCE
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The
monsoon conundrum Climate change expected to exacerbate extreme weather events is happening, warn studies. It will only worsen hereon. As India gears up for a new political regime, its growth plans could be curtailed by freak weather and erratic monsoons.
Indrajit Bose INDIA recently completed
the biggest democratic exercise in the world - the General Elections
2014. The masses have overwhelmingly voted for stability. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) assumed
power by establishing a simple majority on its own. It is widely
believed that the rightist government now in power would give economic
growth a fillip, which was underlined in its manifesto. Also figuring
in the party's manifesto was inclusive and sustainable development;
energy, water, food and health sectors were categorised
as issues of national security. But with increasing weather variability,
erratic monsoons and climate change making its presence felt, growth
targets and fulfilment of election manifestos would be doubly difficult
to achieve, and this will put at stake the growth paradigm of the
country. Consider this. In February
and March this year unseasonal rainfall along with hailstorm played
havoc with farmers' lives in six Indian states - Punjab, Uttar Pradesh,
Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh. Unprecedented
as it was, the event lasted 20 days and it came just as farmers
were preparing to harvest crops. More than a hundred farmers reportedly
committed suicide due to debt-related worries. In 2013 too, India experienced
weather events that covered the entire spectrum ranging from major
floods and cyclones to droughts, leading to considerable loss in
lives, livelihoods and wealth. The country felt the significant
impact of floods in Uttarakhand, a hill state in northern India; a succession
of cyclones hit the eastern coasts, particularly in Andhra Pradesh;
and intense episodes of rainfall in typically dry/arid regions caught
communities unawares, leaving them unprepared for the scale of loss
and damage to which they were subjected. Such events serve as
precedents to what India is about to experience in the near future
and it's not good news on that front. Warning
bell A recently released report
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned of dire
consequences for India as a result of climate change. The report
outlined that risks of climate change are intensifying and that
the lives of the world's poor are at stake. India becomes especially
vulnerable since it houses 33% of the world's poorest people (see box). Floods and droughts are likely to increase in India, since there will be a decline in seasonal rainfall, coupled with an increase in extreme precipitation during the monsoon, the report says. Also, freshwater resources will be affected due a combination of climate change and unsustainable practices.
Projections on agriculture especially are stark. The IPCC report pegs a loss of over $7 billion in agriculture in India by 2030. Heat stress, rising temperatures and erratic monsoons will contribute substantially to this loss. In India, agriculture is the backbone of livelihood security for over half the country's population and nearly 60% of agriculture is rainfed - farmers are dependent on the rains to grow crops. Erratic monsoons or any change in the monsoon pattern therefore has huge consequences for the country in terms of ensuring food security.
A study by a team of
Stanford University researchers in California, USA, further substantiates
this. The study evaluated how wet and dry spells have changed between
1951-80 and 1981-2011. The findings are worrying, given India's
plans of inclusive and sustainable development. How have monsoons changed in India?
The study found that there has been a decrease in rainfall in the peak monsoon season; variability in daily rainfall has increased; wet spells have become more intense; and dry spells occur more frequently. 'There are fewer total number of rain days in the monsoon season, and the amount of rainfall on these days is highly variable. This leads to an overall decrease in the mean rainfall in these months (July-August) but an increase in the day-to-day fluctuations in the amount of rainfall,' said Deepti Singh of Stanford University's Department of Environmental Earth System Science, who is also the co-author of the study published online in Nature Climate Change on 28 April.
Why are such changes happening? Are they following the natural scheme of things, or can the findings be linked to climate change? Singh does not dispute the climate change link. The findings of the study are consistent with previous projections of the hydrological cycle with increased global warming, she says. 'Although we still need a separate attribution study of these observed changes to natural and anthropogenic sources, our results suggest that we are already seeing significant changes similar to what are expected in response to increased greenhouse gas warming,' Singh told Third World Resurgence. Besides, some of the changes in circulation patterns in the study also matched those expected to occur with increased global warming. The only caveat Singh issues is that since multiple factors such as greenhouse gases, aerosols and land use changes interact with the monsoon differently, one must carefully evaluate the influence of each of these factors to make more accurate projections for the forthcoming decades.
The impact of changes in monsoons will be telling on rainfed agriculture, crops, livestock, livelihoods and food security, the study warns. 'As central India encompasses several river basins that contain high population densities and large areas of crop cultivation, rainfall extremes over this region have a particularly strong influence on agriculture and water management,' reads the study, which assessed the South Asian summer monsoon over central India, comprising Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, parts of Uttar Pradesh and eastern Rajasthan.
To add to the grim scenario, the Indian Meteorological Department has predicted a less-than-average monsoon for the year 2014, and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has also said that below-normal rainfall is most likely during the 2014 summer monsoon season (June to September) over South Asia as a whole. One of the reasons for this, said the WMO statement, is the possibility of an El Nino, a phenomenon where the Pacific warms due to increased sea surface temperature. El Nino conditions during the monsoon season are known to weaken the South Asian summer monsoon circulation and adversely impact rainfall over the region.
Given such uncertainties and erratic weather, it is amply clear that erratic monsoons will continue to play havoc with people's lives unless anticipatory steps are taken to ensure food and livelihood security for the people of the country, especially its poor population. This is the litmus test for the new government in India.
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TWN | THIRD
WORLD RESURGENCE | ARCHIVE
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