The Durban package: 'Laisser faire, laisser passer'

Bolivia's former chief climate negotiator contends that the free market regime of measures adopted by the climate change conferences in Copenhagen, Cancun and now Durban to tackle global warming will fail to stem an increase in temperatures beyond the critical 2øC.

THE Climate Change Conference ended two days later than expected, adopting a set of decisions that were known only a few hours before their adoption. Some decisions were not even complete at the moment of their consideration. Paragraphs were missing and some delegations didn't even have copies of these drafts. The package of decisions was released by the South African presidency of the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) with the ultimatum of 'Take it or leave it'. Only the European Union was allowed to make last-minute amendments.

Several delegations made harsh criticisms of the documents and expressed their opposition to sections of them. However, no delegation explicitly objected to the subsequent adoption of these decisions. In the end, the whole package was adopted by consensus without the objection of any delegation. The core elements of the Durban package can be summarised as follows:

1) A zombie called Kyoto Protocol

* A soulless undead: The promises of reducing greenhouse gas emissions for the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol represent less than half of what is necessary to keep the temperature increase below 2øC.

* This zombie (second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol) will only finally go into effect next year.

* It is not known if the second period of the Kyoto Protocol will cover five or eight years.

* Canada, Japan and Russia will be out of this second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. Australia and New Zealand have not even made any pledges yet, while the United States is not a Party.

* This will be known as the lost decade in the fight against climate change.

2) New regime of 'laisser faire, laisser passer'

* In 2020 a new legal instrument will come into effect that will replace the Kyoto Protocol and will seriously impact on the principles of the UNFCCC.

* The core elements of this new legal instrument can be already seen due to the results of the negotiationsÿso far: a) voluntary promises rather than binding commitments to reduce emissions, b) more flexibilities (carbon markets) for developed countries to meet their emission reduction promises, and c) an even weaker compliance mechanism than the Kyoto Protocol.

* The new legal instrument will cover all the states, and developed countries will want to removeÿthe difference between developing and developed countries. The principle of 'common but differentiated responsibilities' already established in the UNFCCC is in danger of disappearing.

* The result will be the deepening of the 'laisser faire, laisser passer' regime inaugurated in Copenhagen, Cancun and Durban which will lead to an increase in temperature of more than 4øC.

3) A Green Climate Fund with no funds

* The Green Climate Fund now has an institutional structure in which the World Bank is a key player.

* The $100 billion a year by 2020 is only a promise and will NOT be provided for by the developed countries.

* The money will come from the carbon markets (which are collapsing), from private investments, from credits (to be paid) and from the developing countries themselves.

4) A lifesaver for the carbon markets

* The existing carbon markets will live regardless of the fate of the Kyoto Protocol.

* Also, new carbon market mechanisms will be created to meet the emissions reduction pledges of this decade.

* It is a desperate attempt to avoid the loss of the carbon markets, which are collapsing due to the fall of the carbon credits, from 30 euros per ton to 3 euros per ton of CO2.

* Developed countries will reduce less than what they promise because they will buy emission reduction certificates from developing countries.

5) REDD: a perverse incentive to deforest in this decade

* If you don't cut down trees you won't be able to issue certificates of reduction of deforestation when the REDD (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) mechanism comes into operation.

* Consequence: deforest now if you want to be ready for REDD.

* The safeguards for indigenous peoples will be flexible and discretionary for each country.

* The offer of funding for forests is postponed until the next decade due to the fact that demand for carbon credits will not increase until then because of the low emission reduction promises.

Amandla! Jallalla!

In the actions and events of the social movements in Durban, two battle cries emerged: 'Amandla' and 'Jallalla'. The first one is a Xhosa and Zulu word from South Africa which means 'power'. The second word is an expression in Aymara which means 'for life'. 'Amandla! Jallalla!' means 'Power for life!'

This is the 'power for life' that we must build, transcending borders, from our communities, neighbourhoods, workplaces and places of study, in order to stop this ongoing genocide and ecocide.                                    

International analyst and social activist Pablo Solon is former United Nations Ambassador and chief climate change negotiator of the Plurinational State of Bolivia.

*Third World Resurgence No. 255/256, November/December 2011, pp 49-50