China is not a cash cow
for resolving eurozone crisis
While media reports
are emphasising the role China
could play in helping to resolve the eurozone debt crisis, Steffen
Dyck warns that expectations pinned on China might be far from realistic.
THE eurozone is China's
most important trading partner. The region takes up around 20% of China's total exports, which is slightly higher
than the US
share in Chinese exports. From this angle, China has a vital interest
in a stable eurozone, as exports and export-related investment account
for a substantial share of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth and -
what is probably even more important - employment.
Estimates show that
Chinese export growth could drop by 6-7 percentage points (pp) and real
GDP growth by 1 pp in case GDP growth in the US and EU slowed by 1 pp.
Furthermore, China has already invested in euro
assets. According to various estimates, around 20-25 per cent of China's
total foreign currency reserves or 480-600 billion euros are held in
euro assets, presumably predominantly in highly rated sovereign instruments
like German government bonds.
In addition, investors
from China including
Hong Kong bought 6% of the 5 billion
euro initial issuance of the EFSF (European Financial Stability Facility)
benchmark bond in January 2011. China
has a stock of 7 billion euros in foreign direct investments in the
eurozone, which comprises 3% of its total outward FDI stock as of 2010.
Last but not least, the euro is part of China's
envisaged tripolar world order - that is, co-existence of the US dollar,
euro, and Chinese yuan as three leading global currencies.
The eurozone as a
whole needs around 17.5% of estimated GDP for refinancing in 2012, equivalent
to 1.7 trillion euros. (Refinancing requirements are calculated as the
estimated government budget deficit in 2012 plus outstanding T-bills
plus government bonds and loans.)
The largest share
is of France with
around 25% of the total, followed by Italy with a share of almost 23%.
Spain, Greece,
Portugal and Ireland
together make up another 20% or 340 billion euros. Together, the five
GIIPS countries (Greece,
Ireland, Italy,
Portugal and Spain)
will probably need 730 billion euros in refinancing in 2012. In comparison,
Germany
needs 325 billion euros or 19% of estimated GDP in 2012.
China not awash with cash
Many news reports
paint a picture of China as being awash with cash due
to its large foreign exchange reserves. However, these reserves are
for the most part invested in long-term sovereign debt instruments,
with around 60-65% in dollar instruments, 20-25% in euro assets and
the remainder split between other currencies. Presumably only a very
small fraction is held in highly liquid short-term paper.
Theoretically, even
longer-dated instruments could be liquidated, but given the large amounts
necessary in the case of the GIIPS countries, this would send ripple
effects through the UST (US Treasury) market - except that Beijing decided
to sell German government bonds and other core-EMU (Economic and Monetary
Union) government bonds instead. Therefore, a more realistic scenario
would be a slight acceleration of foreign exchange reserve diversification
by investing an increasing share of additional or new reserves in euro
assets.
Let us assume that
total reserve accumulation in 2012 amounts to $650 billion (500 billion
euros), which is the Deutsche Bank forecast. Even if the euro share
were to rise to 30-35%, this would only mean $195-228 billion (150-175
billion euros) in financing available from China
- or 20-24% of the GIIPS countries' total refinancing requirements.
The analysis above
shows that even if China
were willing to buy more troubled eurozone countries' sovereign debt,
this would not be sufficient to resolve the GIIPS debt crisis. Moreover,
we doubt that China
is willing to take on substantial additional risks. Even China Investment
Corporation (CIC), China's
sovereign wealth fund with a global portfolio of $135 billion, would
be hesitant to load on GIIPS bonds as its 'underlying investment objective
is to seek long-term, sustainable, and high financial returns [.] within
acceptable risk tolerance.'
On top of that, Chinese
public opinion towards increased investment is unlikely to be supportive
as the general perception is that the troubled eurozone member countries
have lived beyond their means and are now turning to the savings of
a country that is still confronted with domestic development needs of
its own. - IDN-InDepthNews
Steffen Dyck is
a Deutsche Bank research analyst. A version of this article appeared
on 16 September 2011 on www.dbresearch.com under the headline 'China - Not really a white knight
for the eurozone'.
*Third World
Resurgence No. 253, September 2011, p 16
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