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THIRD WORLD RESURGENCE

The human and health costs of Chernobyl

While the full human impact of the Chernobyl disaster may never be fully known, the following article considers some of the estimates that are currently available.

Dirk Bannink

AT 0123 hrs on 26 April 1986, the fourth reactor of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in Ukraine exploded.

The disaster was a unique industrial accident due to the scale of its social, economic and environmental impacts and longevity. It is estimated that, in Ukraine, Belarus and Russia alone, around nine million people were directly affected resulting from the fact that the long-lived radioactivity released was more than 200 times that of the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

Across the former Soviet Union the contamination resulted in the evacuation of some 400,000 people. About 200,000 km2 of land was, and is, contaminated by radioactive caesium-137 above 37,000 Bq/m2 (intervention level). In area terms, about 3,900,000 km2 of Europe was contaminated by caesium-137 (above 4,000 Bq/m2), which is 40% of the surface area of Europe. Curiously, this latter figure does not appear to have been published and certainly has never reached the public's consciousness in Europe.

This contamination will persist for centuries, and many countries as well as Belarus, Ukraine and Russia will need to continue with food restriction orders for decades to come. The economic consequences of the accident remain a massive burden on the countries most affected; Ukraine and Belarus continue to spend a large percentage of their Gross National Product on trying to deal with the consequences of the accident.

About the health consequences of the Chernobyl accident, much research has been conducted, many reports have been written and still many uncertainties exist. Although official accounts point to 4,000 expected cancer deaths from Chernobyl in Belarus, Ukraine and Russia, the real prediction in International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)/World Health Organisation (WHO) reports is more than 9,000. Many other studies are expecting a multiple of that number. A 2009 publication that looked to Russian and Ukraine language reports, left out of the official studies, calculated a casualty figure of up to 900,000. The full impact of the Chernobyl disaster may never be known.

IAEA underestimates health consequences

In April 1996, the IAEA, together with WHO and the European Commission, organised the conference 'One Decade After Chernobyl: Summing Up the Consequences'. The conclusions of the IAEA on the health effects of the Chernobyl disaster were as follows:

* The death rate among 'liquidators'1 did not exceed that for a corresponding age group.

* Thus far, the only admitted health effect due to radiation was an increase in thyroid cancers in children. Eight hundred and ninety cases were detected. In the coming decades, several thousand more cases of thyroid cancer (4,000-8,000) could be expected.

* No significant increase in leukaemia had been found.

* Future cancer deaths would be about 6,660: 2,200 among liquidators and 4,460 among residents and evacuees of contaminated areas.

* Other health effects were related to psychological stress: fear of radiation and a distrust in the government.2 

The IAEA conclusions on Chernobyl's health effects were very conservative and were contradicted by other studies. The co-organiser of the 1996 conference, WHO, had presented completely different figures in the previous year. WHO, the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO) and the UN Children's Fund (UNICEF) submitted their findings in a 1995 report to the UN General Assembly. WHO noted an increase in illnesses and deaths among liquidators. According to the Chernobyl Union (the union of liquidators), 10% of the liquidators had become less able-bodied and were unable to do full-time work.3 The vice-adviser of Chernobyl affairs of the Ukrainian parliament, Wladimir Usatenko, said that according to federal registers, 60,000 of the 360,000 Ukrainian liquidators had died (not only due to Chernobyl). Another 49,000 had become less able-bodied and were unable to work.4 The incidence of tumours among Belarussian liquidators was also higher than could normally be expected.5

The conclusion of the IAEA that the death rate among liquidators was not higher than normal and its silence on the high incidence of diseases indicated a lack of appreciation for the work they did. The IAEA denied that a significant increase in leukaemia among the liquidators had been found. But a study on a group of liquidators showed that five years after their work, cases of leukaemia reached a peak and subsequently decreased. The expected time between receiving a high dose of radiation and the development of leukaemia is five years. A relation therefore seems clear.6

Questionable

The IAEA's conclusion that other health problems were related to psychological stress is questionable. It is certainly true that liquidators and inhabitants of contaminated areas were fearful of the consequences of the disaster. This would contribute to the illnesses that already existed or that could be expected in the future. But to claim that all diseases other than thyroid cancer and leukaemia were caused by stress is pure nonsense. The rate of birth defects, for instance, showed a correlation with the amount of contamination. In highly affected areas, more birth defects had been diagnosed and the defects were worse in nature. In Belarus an increase of 161% had been recorded.7 Sharp increases in diseases among children also belied the IAEA's 'psychological stress' claim. UNICEF statistics on the health conditions of Belarussian children from 1990 till 1994 showed an increase in different diseases or defects.3

It seems that the IAEA wanted to relate the increase in diseases mainly to psychological stress. Radiation would only be the cause of higher incidence of thyroid cancer and leukaemia. In this way, the number of deaths caused by radiation would be low. If the IAEA were to be believed, the other diseases/deaths were simply caused by stress.

The IAEA projections on future cancer deaths were also very low when one considers the dose to which the liquidators and inhabitants had been exposed. With the received collective dose, calculations can be made on the expected number of cancer deaths in the future. When these calculations were made with dose-effect figures from the official pro-nuclear International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), a death total of 50,000 to 70,000 could be expected - only due to radiation exposure in the first two years after the accident.8 The American radiation expert John Gofman made even more dramatic calculations. Because the ICRP dose-effect figures were too low, he made calculations with a figure for risk for received radiation six times higher. He calculated that 317,000 to 475,000 deaths could be expected worldwide.8 The figure of 6,660 mentioned by the IAEA would certainly be too low.

IAEA study 'rubbish'

According to a September 2005 IAEA press release introducing the report 'Chernobyl's Legacy: Health, Environmental and Socio-Economic Impacts', a total of up to 4,000 people could eventually die of radiation exposure from the Chernobyl accident. '[A]s of mid-2005, however, fewer than 50 deaths had been directly attributed to radiation from the disaster.'

Chernobyl relief organisations and many radiation scientists disputed and criticised the data and figures in the report, calling them 'poor', 'quite inappropriate' or simply 'rubbish'. The report was accused of downplaying the true dimensions of the catastrophe. Some statements of the study were challenged as 'demonstrably false'. Experts were also concerned that the IAEA may have had 'too great an influence' on the study.

Dr Rosalie Bertell, a well-known expert, made many comments on the IAEA's press release. One of these comments was on the following quote: 'Approximately 1,000 on-site reactor staff and emergency workers were heavily exposed to high-level radiation on the first day of the accident; among the more than 200,000 emergency and recovery operation workers exposed during the period from 1986-1987, an estimated 2,200 radiation-caused deaths can be expected during their lifetime.' According to Bertell, 'Radiation-caused deaths is a loaded statement. It assumes that only death is considered to be detrimental, and eliminates the consideration of all severe and debilitating morbidity. Moreover, these scientists, trained by the documents released by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) over the last 50 years, have accepted without question that the only health effects "of concern" attributable to radiation are deaths from cancer. Non-fatal cancers are basically of no concern. These are administrative decisions and not science...'

Dr Angelica Claussen from the German branch of the International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War has remarked: 'Studies conducted for the International Chernobyl Project of the IAEA took place from January 1990 to the end of February 1991. In 1990 alone the rate of new cases of thyroid cancer in children in Belarus was 30 times higher than the 10 year average.'

The IAEA report stated however: 'The official data that were examined did not indicate a marked increase in the incidence of leukaemia or cancers ... Reported adverse health effects attributed to radiation were not substantiated either by those local studies that were adequately performed or by the studies under the Project ... The children who were examined were found to be generally healthy...'

Later independent research by the BBC has proved that the IAEA and its international commission of experts were already in possession of all the relevant facts at the time of the presentation of the report, including the histopathological evidence for a marked increase in the rate of thyroid cancers. It is alarming to ascertain that this deliberate deception of the general public was practised by such experts as Professor Mettler, director of the medical expert group of the International Chernobyl Project, and other experts from the European Union and Japan.

Human consequences of the Chernobyl accident

In a 2002 report entitled 'The Human Consequences of the Chernobyl Nuclear Accident', the UN called for an entirely new approach to helping the millions of people impacted by the Chernobyl accident, saying that 16 years after the incident those affected remained in a state of 'chronic dependency', with few opportunities and little control over their destinies. The UN warned that populations in Belarus, Russia and Ukraine would continue to experience general decline unless significant new measures were adopted to address health, environmental and unemployment issues.

The report set out the findings of a study carried out by an international panel of experts in July-August 2001. It was commissioned by the UN Development Programme (UNDP) and UNICEF, and was supported by WHO and the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).

The study emphasised the need for the recovery phase to focus attention on two broad groups. The first group included some 100,000 to 200,000 people caught in the downward spiral. These were people who lived in severely contaminated areas; people who had been resettled but remained unemployed; and those whose health remained most directly threatened, including victims of thyroid cancer. Some 2,000 people had been diagnosed with thyroid cancer, and the report stated that as many as 8,000 to 10,000 additional cases were expected to develop over the coming years. The report stated that this group of up to 200,000 people, spread across all three countries, were 'at the core of the cluster of problems created by Chernobyl', and focusing on their needs and helping them take control of their futures must be a priority.

The second group identified for priority action included those whose lives had been directly and significantly affected but who were already in a position to support themselves. This group had found employment, but still must be reintegrated into society as a whole so that their ongoing needs could be addressed through the mainstream provision of services using criteria applicable to other members of society. This group included hundreds of thousands of individuals.

The report also identified a third group, encompassing millions of people, who had been indirectly impacted by the stigma, uncertainty and fatalism that had become associated with Chernobyl. This group, too, needed to be aided through clearer information and more open and continuous disclosures about the evolving situation in the region, the report argued. The report noted that some seven million people were in some way or another recipients of state welfare connected with Chernobyl.

Conclusion

Twenty-five years on, 26 April 2011 does not mark the end of the suffering resulting from the Chernobyl accident.

However, due to further downplaying of the health consequences by organisations linked to the nuclear establishment and the fact that the Chernobyl accident will fade away from public debate and in the collective memory, it will be extremely difficult to raise public awareness on this matter in the future.

Let's make sure that past and future suffering due to Chernobyl will not be in vain by making 26 April the international 'phase out nuclear' day and increasing our efforts to end the nuclear age. 

The above is an edited extract from a detailed chronology of the Chernobyl disaster which appeared in Nuclear Monitor (No. 724, March 11, 2011). Nuclear Monitor is published by the World Information Service on Energy (WISE) and the Nuclear Information & Resource Service (NIRS).

Endnotes

1. Hundreds of thousands of people, many of them military reservists, from all over the Soviet Union were mobilised to assist in the cleanup or the 'liquidation' of the consequences of the accident.

2. IAEA, 'One decade after Chernobyl: summing up the consequences of the accident. Conclusions', 1996.

3. UN, 'Strengthening of the coordination of humanitarian and disaster relief assistance ... regions', 1995.

4. Der Standard Online (Austria), 12 April 1996.

5. A Okeanov, Belarussian Centre for Medical Technologies, Minsk. 'The health status of the liquidators according to the Belarussian Chernobyl registry data (preliminary anakosis)', 1995.

6. Buzunov et al, 'Chernobyl NPP accident consequences cleaning up participants in Ukraine health status', March 1996.

7. G I Lazuik et al, 'Frequency changes of inherited anomalies in the Republic Belarus after the Chernobyl accident', 1995.

8.  Greenpeace International, 'Chernobyl, 10 years after', WISE News Communique 451, 26 April 1996.


'Chernobyl is safe' ... well, until 26 April 1986, that is

BEFORE the Chernobyl accident very little was known about the Chernobyl type reactor, the RBMK (also called the light-water-cooled, graphite-moderated reactor or LWGR). One of the few published articles on this before 1986, in the December 1983 issue of the German nuclear industry monthly atomwirtschaft, was written by H. Born from one of the main German utilities VEW. He wrote: 'For operational safety, the nuclear power plants (VVER and RBMK) are equipped with three parallel safety systems. The power plants are designed to withstand natural disasters (hurricanes, floods, earthquakes, etc.) and to withstand aircraft crash and blasts from outside. The safety is increased by the possibility in Russia of selecting a site far away from bigger towns.'

In the June 1983 issue of the IAEA Bulletin, B. Semenov, Deputy Director General, Head of the IAEA Department of Nuclear Energy and Safety, summed up 'many factors favouring the channel-type graphite-uranium boiling-water reactors' and concluded: 'The design feature of having more than 1,000 individual primary circuits increases the safety of the reactor system - a serious loss-of-coolant accident is practically impossible.'  
 

*Third World Resurgence No. 248, April 2011, pp 20-22


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