Copenhagen Accord in line with 3.9-degree warming, say US researchers

A team of US researchers has found that the pledges submitted under the Copenhagen Accord against climate change are in line with a global temperature rise of 3.9 degrees Celsius, which is a level that scientists consider to be disastrous for the environment and human life.

AN analysis done by researchers from the Sustainability Institute (a non-profit organisation in the US that is involved in simulation modelling of climate change), the MIT Sloan School of Management, and Ventana Systems (a company involved in building simulation models) concludes that 'emissions reduction pledges submitted under the Copenhagen Accord process fall short of the level of greenhouse gas emissions reductions required to limit temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius, relative to pre-industrial temperatures. Instead, the proposals, if fully implemented, would allow global mean temperature to increase approximately 3.9 degrees Celsius.'

The researchers concluded that to reach the Copenhagen Accord goal (i.e. that global warming be limited to 2 degrees Celsius), global emissions must peak within the next decade and fall to at least 50% below 1990 levels by 2050.

The estimates of the US researchers are more pessimistic than those in two other recent studies.

The research groups, Ecofys, Climate Analytics and the Potsdam Institute, in a statement released on 2 February, assessed the pledges made by both developed and developing countries so far, and concluded that they add up to a level of emissions in 2020 that would be in line with a global temperature rise of over 3 degrees Celsius.

Another analysis of the pledges of only developed countries done by the US-based World Resources Institute concluded that the pledges fall 'far short of the range of emission reductions - 25 to 40% - that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change notes would be necessary for stabilising concentrations of [carbon dioxide] equivalent at 450 [parts per million], a level associated with a 26 to 78% risk of overshooting a 2 degree Celsius goal'.

Large gap

According to a 4 February press release by the Sustainability Institute, researchers analysed the pledges by countries that were submitted to the Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) till 2 February.

The analysis, based on computer simulation of climate change, assumes that the goals for emissions reductions pledged by nations in their submissions are fully achieved and that loopholes (such as double counting of offsets or the selling of surplus emissions quotas) do not occur.

'Simulation of the emissions reductions pledges contained within letters submitted to the UNFCCC show a large gap between the 2 degree target and current pledges. Using the simulation, the researchers estimate that current pledges would allow global mean temperature to increase by 3.9 degrees Celsius by 2100,' according to the press release.

(The Copenhagen Accord adopted the 'scientific view that the increase in global temperature should be below 2 degrees Celsius'.)

'Under the current proposals submitted to the UNFCCC, global emissions of greenhouse gases would increase on average 0.8% per year between now and 2020. After 2020, emissions would need to fall at a rate of approximately 3.3% per year to achieve the goal of reducing emissions 60% below current levels by 2050. The Copenhagen Accord does not include commitments or means to achieve these reductions,' stated the press release.

According to Dr Elizabeth Sawin of the Sustainability Institute, 'Without deeper near term emissions reductions and an explicit commitment to longer term global emissions reductions, the Copenhagen Accord leaves the task of creating a global framework to prevent dangerous interference with the Earth's climate unfinished.'

'A new degree of collective ambition and cooperation will be required before the world sees a climate agreement consistent with limiting warming to even 2 degrees Celsius, let alone the 1.5 degree Celsius goal named by a growing number of governments and civil society groups,' she added.

Bolivian concern

Meanwhile, the Foreign Minister of Bolivia has expressed deep concern about the inadequacy of the emission reduction pledges made by developed countries under the Copenhagen Accord and warned that this could lead to global warming of up to 4 degrees Celsius.

In a press conference together with indigenous peoples and peasant communities held in Bolivia on 8 February, the Minister, David Choquehuanca, said that 'the commitments of the developed countries, related to greenhouse gas emission reductions, will result in more than 3 degrees C increase in temperature above pre-industrial levels'.

He added that, 'Some experts even say that the temperature could rise as high as 4 degrees C above pre-industrial levels.'

'The situation is serious. An increase of temperature of more than 1 degree above pre-industrial levels would result in the disappearance of our glaciers in the Andes, and the flooding of various islands and coastal zones,' said the Minister.

In the Copenhagen climate talks in December, the Bolivian government demanded that greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by 40% or more below 1990 levels by 2020.

Backwards step

Choquehuanca said that the Copenhagen Accord was a step backwards from the existing Kyoto Protocol.

'The way these commitments have been made in the badly named Copenhagen Accord shows that this is a backwards step from the Kyoto Protocol,' he said.

'Under the Kyoto Protocol, everyone had to first define a common goal for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, and then it was up to the developed states in Annex 1 of the Kyoto Protocol to make reduction commitments to arrive at this objective. Now, the methodology that is imposed by the Copenhagen Accord is that each developed country notes what it is going to do without considering the common target,' he stressed.

(The Bolivian Minister was referring to what is required under the Kyoto Protocol, where the aggregate targets for developed country Parties need to be determined and then apportioned through negotiations among the developed countries. The Copenhagen Accord only requires developed countries to indicate their commitments in an appendix without the prior setting of aggregate targets for the developed countries as a whole.)

The Bolivian Minister further said that 'what is happening, in terms of greenhouse gas emission reduction commitments by the developed countries, reinforces the need for a World Peoples' Conference on Climate Change and Mother Earth Rights, that will be held in Bolivia (in April this year)'.

'This Conference will be a transparent and inclusive event, in which no one will be marginalised. The conference will be attended by citizens, social movements and scientists. We have also been inviting all the governments and the organisations within the United Nations to participate as delegates and experts to discuss along with the peoples how to address the crisis that affects us all,' he further explained.                 

Meena Raman is a legal adviser and senior researcher with the Third World Network. The above is edited from articles which first appeared in the South-North Development Monitor (SUNS, Nos. 6861 and 6862, 11 and 12 February 2010), published by TWN.

*Third World Resurgence No. 234, February 2010, pp 10-12