New book on possible 100% renewable energy by 2050

A new book on renewable energies states that global warming is happening at a much faster rate than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted in its latest 2007 report but describes a host of available technologies that can be used to fully meet the world's energy needs.

Riaz K Tayob

Issue No. 231/232 (Nov/Dec 2009)

A NEW book, Green Energies: 100% Renewables by 2050, launched on 25 November at the UK Parliament premises in London shows that a wide variety of truly green and affordable energy sources already exist for the world to become 100% reliant on renewable energy within decades.

The book also refines the concept of 'sustainable development', popularised in the Brundtland Report, which the authors say has been hijacked and often means just the opposite.

The book is jointly published by the Institute of Science in Society (ISIS) and the Third World Network (TWN). Its authors are Mae-Wan Ho, Brett Cherry, Sam Burcher and Peter Saunders. The launch was attended by a number of UK parliamentarians, including Alan Simpson (MP), UK Government Special Adviser on Renewable Energy and Feed-in Tariffs, Michael Meacher (MP) and Lord David Steel.

At the launch the lead author Dr Mae-Wan Ho (ISIS Director) said that being renewable is not enough. It has to be green, which means also being environmentally friendly, healthy, safe, non-polluting, and sustainable. She said that false solutions such as nuclear power, carbon capture and storage, and biochar must be abandoned. (The text of Ho's speech is reproduced in the following article.)

The book shows that in 2008, for the first time, more renewable energies capacity has been added than conventional energies and the trend continues.

Global power capacity from new renewable energies (excluding large hydro) reached at least 280 GW in 2008, a 16% rise from the 240 GW in 2007. New renewable energies now account for 6.2% of the global formal power sector capacity.

These figures do not include the rapidly growing household generation of biogas in China, estimated to have reached 9 GW at the end of 2008.

Solar tops the new renewable energies. Solar heating capacity increased by 15% to 147 GW. Grid-connected solar photovoltaic power continued to be the fastest-growing power generation technology, with a 70% increase globally to reach 13.4 GW.

Global wind power capacity grew by 28 GW in 2008 to 122 GW. This was the fifth consecutive year of accelerating growth at just over 28% per annum. The US led the growth with 8.4 GW, a 49.5% increase on 2007, while China came second with the fastest growth rate and the second highest capacity increment at 6.2 GW.

At least 73 countries had renewable energy policy targets by the end of 2008, and several more were added to the list in 2009. Feed-in tariffs were adopted in at least five countries for the first time in 2008 and early 2009: Kenya, the Philippines, Poland, South Africa and Ukraine.

In the foreword to the book, TWN Director, Chee Yoke Ling, states that developing countries with 80% of the world population, the vast majority of whom are struggling to rise above poverty, are already hard hit by more frequent and intense climate disasters, and any false solution foisted upon them will certainly stress them beyond the breaking point. Equity as a pillar of the necessary transformation towards climate stabilisation and sustainable development is enshrined in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and responses should be based on common but differentiated responsibilities.

Recommendations flowing from the book are:

1. An explicit national target should be set for 100% green, renewable energy sources by 2050;

2.  Nuclear power, carbon capture and storage, and large-scale biofuel or biochar plantations should be excluded;

3. There should be no carbon trading to offset greenhouse gas emissions in developing countries;

4. The developed nations must take responsibility for reducing their own emissions at home, while providing genuine financial and technological assistance to developing nations that have to cope with the worst effects of climate change;

5. Public investment should be targeted at education, research and development of the appropriate green energy technologies present and future (including those mentioned in the book);

6. Grants and subsidies should be targeted to encourage decentralised, distributed small-scale to micro-generation of green renewable energies, and to promote green initiatives from local communities;

7. Feed-in tariffs should be introduced for all new renewable energies;

8. Existing nuclear power stations should be decommissioned at the end of their designated lifetimes. Uranium mining should cease and clean-up should begin. At the same time, weapons-grade uranium should be consumed in existing reactors in accordance with nuclear disarmament;

9. Major public investment should be directed towards making safe toxic and radioactive nuclear wastes by low-energy nuclear transmutation.

The book notes that a global shift to renewable energies is already happening, and there are politicians and energy experts who see no difficulty in producing 100% of our energy from renewable sources by 2050, Germany being cited in the book.

It is generally assumed that transition to low carbon is an economic hardship that should be avoided as far as possible. However, it can be an unprecedented opportunity for innovations, for creating new jobs and new markets, and delivering health and wealth to the nation.

According to the authors, many politicians and renewable energy experts in Europe see a realistic option of 100% renewable energy supply in a commercial market free of any subsidy by 2050. The key is decentralised, distributed generation that provides energy autonomy at the point of use, a model that has proven so successful in Germany. There the industry is offering a variety of distributed, decentralised options that also give people autonomy and independence from big centralised power stations.

Caution on false solutions

At the same time, the book stresses that it is important to recognise and reject options that are not renewable or sustainable or are dangerous, notably nuclear power, carbon capture and storage, and biochar.

On nuclear energy, the book states that the nuclear industry is notorious for cost overruns during construction of power plants. But that is nothing compared to the downstream costs of decommissioning, waste management and disposal. It is considered a bad investment for private industry.  Taxpayers in the US and UK were left with enormous burdens in 'stranded costs', while the nuclear industry in both countries continues to milk the old reactors for sheer profit, well past their decommissioning dates, and often their safety limits. Adding to the hundreds of billions already squandered is an estimated US$1 trillion in research and development that governments around the world have spent on 'safer', 'cleaner' reactors that have proven fruitless so far.

High-grade uranium ore is fast depleting, and mining and extracting uranium is energy-intensive as well as environmentally destructive. Lifecycle assessments show that when uranium ore grade falls below 0.02% in the next 50 or 60 years, it would consume more energy to build uranium fuel reactors than the energy they could ever produce.

The book recommends the abandoning of the nuclear option and the installation of renewable energy generators instead.

The book also warns against biofuels from 'bioenergy' crops, pointing to the authors' earlier predictions on increased deforestation, land grabs and food price hikes that have come to pass. The International Biochar Initiative is similar in that it proposes to grow crops and trees on hundreds of millions of hectares of illusory 'spare land' in developing countries. But instead of making biofuels from the harvested biomass, it will be turned into biochar (charcoal) to be buried in the soil, where it will remain stable for thousands of years and increase crop yields. Biochar is therefore promoted as a 'carbon negative' initiative that could save the climate - by sequestering stable carbon in the soil - and boost food production. The book criticises the evidence used to justify this initiative, which it finds questionable.

On carbon capture and storage (CCS), the book states that it is intended to reduce the impact of burning fossil fuels by capturing carbon dioxide (CO2) from power stations and storing it underground in depleted oil and gas reservoirs, disused mines or deep saline aquifers. CCS has wide support among governments but is an unproven technology.

Its earliest commercial deployment is not expected before 2030, which would make it too late to be of use. The International Energy Agency estimates that for CCS to deliver any meaningful climate mitigating effect by 2050, 6,000 projects each injecting a million tonnes of CO2 per year into the ground would be required.

CCS uses up between 10 and 40% of the energy produced in the power station, thereby erasing the efficiency gains of the last 50 years and increasing fuel consumption by one-third. Power stations with CCS also require 90% more fresh water than those without. CCS is expensive and could double the plant costs and increase the price of electricity by 21 to 91%. A recent study commissioned by Germany confirmed that compared with renewable energy options such as wind and solar, CCS will increase CO2 emissions 10- to 40-fold and raise the cost of electricity by 100%.

The book states that the efficacy and safety of CO2 storage is very much in doubt. A 2006 US Geological Survey pilot field experiment in a saline sedimentary rock formation in Frio, Texas, found that the buried CO2 dissolved large amounts of the minerals in the rocks responsible for keeping the gas contained, thereby releasing CO2 into the air. To be viable, the CO2 captured and stored must leak at a globally averaged rate of not more than 1% per year over a timescale of centuries; otherwise, the emitted flux will be greater than or equal to that intended to be mitigated initially.

Choosing renewables

The book highlights the shortcomings of the main energy technologies used currently. The electricity industry contributes 37% of the world's carbon emissions, predominantly from burning fossil fuels. Renewable energies like solar and wind do not emit CO2 while generating electricity.

Big power plants are located far away from most users, and electricity transmission may result in more than 7% being lost. Also some 60-70% of the energy is lost as 'waste' heat. This contrasts with solar panels and wind turbines installed on or near homes and farms; the electricity generated as well as the heat can be consumed directly without much loss. Furthermore, because the capital costs of installation are much lower, they can easily be upgraded to take advantage of technological improvements.

A 'cradle-to-grave' lifecycle assessment (LCA) gives a clearer idea on the choice of renewables. LCA includes upstream processes such as mining, refining, transport and plant construction, the production of the device or equipment, the generation and distribution of electricity, and downstream processes such as decommissioning and disposal of wastes. Convenient measures are energy payback ratio (EPR), the energy produced during the operational lifetime versus total energy spent in LCA, and the amount of CO2 produced per unit of energy in g CO2/kWh.

Currently, small hydroelectric power tops the list, with EPR ranging from 30 to 267 and 4-18 g CO2/kWh. Wind comes next at EPR 18 and 16.4 g CO2/kWh offshore, and EPR 34 and 9.7 g CO2/kWh onshore. Photovoltaics (PVs) come third at EPR 6-9 and 44-217 g CO2/kWh. These performance parameters are far superior to conventional oil or coal-fired plants.

Solar photovoltaics are improving rapidly; a 2008 study on 11 types of PV panels gave greenhouse gas emissions of 26 to 55 g CO2/kWh, with CdTe (cadmium telluride) thin film PV modules clearly ahead with the lowest emissions of greenhouse gases as well as nitrogen oxides and sulphur oxides. But concerns remain over the high toxicity of components such as cadmium. Efforts should be made to substitute safer alternatives in the fabrication of PVs as these are becoming common household fixtures.

It is estimated that with a modest 10% efficiency at capturing solar energy, less than 0.1% of the earth's surface covered with solar panels would satisfy all the world's energy needs. Rapid technological improvements and savings from distributed local small-scale and micro-generation could easily reduce the required area by an order of magnitude.

On wind, the book quotes a study which shows that wind turbines on land restricted to ice-free, non-forested, non-urban areas operating at as little as 20% of their rated capacity could provide more than 40 times the world's current electricity consumption, or over five times its total energy needs.

Wind power accounted for 42% of all new electrical capacity added to the US in 2008. The Global Wind Energy Council projected a 17-fold increase in wind-powered electricity globally by 2030. The 10 biggest CO2-emitting countries in the world - the US, China, Russia, Japan, India, Germany, Canada, the UK, South Korea and Italy - all have far more than enough potential from wind to power their electricity needs: 18 times for China (89% from land), 23 times for the US (84% from land) and 30 times for the UK (41.5% from land).

The book also discusses the use of biogas. Biogas is a combustible mixture of gases produced in anaerobic (oxygen-free) digestion by micro-organisms of livestock manure and other biological wastes. The major constituents of biogas are methane and carbon dioxide. Biogas is used as fuel, like natural gas, for combined heat and power generation, while the digested mixture of liquids and solids is mainly used as organic fertiliser for crops. When upgraded and purified, biogas methane can be used as fuel for cars and farm machinery, producing much less particulates and other toxic substances in its exhaust than fossil fuels. Another major advantage of anaerobic digestion is that it prevents at least 90% of the environmental pollution from agricultural and industrial wastes.

In China, the original home of anaerobic digestion, the number of biogas digesters increased from 17 million in 2005 to 26 million in 2007, and an estimated 31 million at the end of 2008, equivalent to 9 GW of renewable energy, mostly in small rural households.

Biogas is booming in Germany and has become Europe's fastest-growing renewable energy sector. Unfortunately, biogas production in Germany has relied to a large extent on energy crops such as maize.

Sweden pioneered the use of biogas methane as vehicle fuel in the 1990s with strong government support. By 2006, 54% of the gas delivered to vehicles was biogas methane. By June 2007, there were 12,000 vehicles driving on biogas methane and 500 filling stations and 70,000 vehicles are expected by 2010.

A conservative estimate for the US indicates that biogas from livestock manure could generate between 68 and 108.8 TWh of electricity a year, or 1.8 to 2.9% of the country's electricity, at a saving of between 47.2 and 150.4 Mt of CO2, about 1.9 to 6% of the country's greenhouse gas emissions.

There is, however, a danger that the biogas economy will be hijacked by big companies for centralised power generation from bio-energy crops, which may jeopardise food security and prevent realisation of the full energy and carbon-mitigating potentials and other benefits of distributed decentralised small-scale generation.

Addressing the need for cooking, the book highlights local responses to this need. A project based on a community cooker that burns rubbish is potentially capable of transforming the slums of Kibera in Kenya. The special cooker, which is the technical innovation of local, self-taught furnace-builder Francis Gwehonah, boils water, cooks, and has two ovens. Recent research findings show that black carbon, the black soot resulting from the incomplete combustion of burning fossil fuels and biomass, contributes to warming the planet 55% as much as CO2, and that reducing black carbon emissions may be the quickest, cheapest way to save the climate. Community cookers will contribute a great deal to that.

The book discusses a range of other technologies and also highlights important frontiers of research.

An Executive Summary of the book is available from:  http://www.i-sis.org.uk/GreenEnergiesPreview.pdf.

Riaz Tayob is a researcher with the Third World Network. The above is an edited version of an article from the South-North Development Monitor (SUNS, No. 6829, 7 December 2009), which is published by TWN.

*Third World Resurgence No. 231/232, November-December 2009, pp 2-5