TWN Info Service on Finance and Development (Sept22/01)
22 September 2022
Third World Network

Finance: Markets sway on evolving perceptions of policy outlook, says BIS
Published in SUNS #9651 dated 22 September 2022

Geneva, 21 Sep (Kanaga Raja) -- Worsening growth prospects and evolving perceptions of the monetary stance shaped financial markets during the period from 1 June 2022 to 12 September 2022, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has said.

In its latest Quarterly Review, the Basel-based BIS said economic indicators deteriorated due to the fallout from the Ukraine war and weakness in China.

Market-based expectations of inflation and policy rates fluctuated as monetary tightening quickened globally and energy disruptions intensified in Europe.

"All these factors swayed financial conditions and contributed to market volatility", it added.

Commodity markets reflected the complex economic outlook. Metal prices continued the decline that had started in the second quarter, not least because of weakening activity in China, said the report.

BIS said while oil prices started falling globally in mid-June, European natural gas prices surged to record highs on disruptions in Russian supplies, with substantial repercussions on industrial equities and electricity costs.

The prices of natural gas and electricity remained highly volatile late in the review period, reflecting the confluence of geopolitical developments and possible speculative dynamics in a market with stressed intermediation capacity, it added.

BIS also reported that the US dollar appreciated broadly against advanced economy (AE) currencies (during the review period).

It said due to previous US monetary tightening, as well as the ongoing European energy crisis, the dollar reached its highest level against the euro and the yen in more than two decades.

"The pace of dollar appreciation was also unusually quick," it added.

THE POLICY OUTLOOK & WORRIES OVER GROWTH

According to the Quarterly Review, efforts to tackle inflation shaped the short end of the yield curve. Early in the review period, investors anticipated further tightening in major advanced economies (AEs) on the back of elevated inflation.

BIS said that in mid-June, after the FOMC [the Federal Open Market Committee] meeting raised rates more than foreseen, market-based inflation expectations fell and the perceived pace of subsequent monetary tightening slowed, particularly for 2023.

BIS said in August, investors anticipated rising inflation, chiefly due to intensifying energy disruptions in Europe and a buoyant US labour market.

"In addition, with central banks signalling further tightening, market-implied policy rates for 2023 began to climb again, supporting the rise in two-year sovereign yields."

According to the Quarterly Review, "longer-term yields danced to the tune of the evolving outlooks for inflation, growth and the policy stance."

They dropped alongside short-maturity ones for about six weeks starting in mid-June, when market-based inflation expectations fell, it added.

BIS said worsening economic prospects also contributed to the decline, as probably did stronger Treasury demand from yield-insensitive traders.

As a result, it added, the US curve inverted sharply, in what is typically a harbinger of recessions, while in most other jurisdictions, curves flattened but largely remained positively sloped, a likely reflection of the less advanced policy cycles, especially in the euro area.

"In August, long-term yields rose, as investors anticipated increasing price pressures and policymakers reiterated their commitment to fighting inflation."

As sovereign yields fluctuated, liquidity in US Treasury markets deteriorated. It remained considerably worse than the post-2010 average, said BIS.

"In part, the deterioration stemmed from the Federal Reserve allowing its balance sheet to shrink, thus reducing liquidity support, especially for off-the-run bonds."

The pronounced weakening of the economic outlook in Europe affected periphery spreads to German bunds as well as the euro exchange rate, said the report.

It said even as bund yields fell in mid-June and July, spreads for Greek and Italian bonds remained elevated.

They temporarily compressed on indications that the European Central Bank (ECB) would develop an instrument aimed at preventing pronounced divergence in euro area sovereign yields, it added.

It said that this was eventually formalised in July as the Transmission Protection Instrument, while in parallel, the euro continued its depreciation vis-a-vis the US dollar to a nadir last seen in 2002.

"In addition, the pace of depreciation over the review period was among the fastest in the last three decades," said BIS.

"Japanese yields remained low, but upward pressure briefly tested policy. Even as 10-year rates rose before mid-June in other AEs, those of Japanese government bonds remained constrained by the yield curve control policy, which set a 25 basis point cap."

Markets put this policy to the test as investors bet on increasing 10-year rates in derivatives markets. As a sign of this pressure, the gap between swap rates and cash yields widened rapidly in June, said the report.

However, the dimming economic outlook and perceptions that US inflation would fall lowered US yields and eased the upward pressure on Japanese ones, starting in mid-June, it added.

"As a consequence, the swap-cash spread compressed markedly and the yen appreciated on the narrower US-yen yield differential. As long-term yields rose globally towards the end of the review period, this differential widened again and the yen's depreciation resumed," said BIS.

SOARING PRICES OF NATURAL GAS

Except for natural gas, commodity prices remained, on net, below the high watermarks reached after the start of the Ukraine war, said the BIS report.

It said for grains, the decline partly reflected tentative agreements to resume dry bulk shipping from Ukraine, while for industrial metals, the drop, which took prices below end-2021 levels, was driven by normalising supply chains and slowing activity in China.

"Oil prices were volatile but declined on balance. Snarled supply chains in the energy sector added to the prices of oil-derived products, such as diesel and gasoline."

BIS said disruptions in natural gas markets were widespread and threatened to be long-lasting. With sharp cuts in flows from Russia and efforts to fill storage ahead of the winter season, European gas prices soared and remained volatile even after a partial retracement.

European gas futures signalled growing expectations that dislocations would be persistent, as prices at the two-year maturity rose over the period under review, to a level five times higher than the historical norm, it added.

BIS said the increase in European natural gas prices had broad spillovers, in that firstly, "attempts to replace gas delivered by pipeline to Europe with sea-borne shipments of liquified natural gas raised prices globally, despite the traditional geographical fragmentation of this market."

"Second, electricity prices for current and future delivery soared in countries more reliant on natural gas for power generation, reaching unprecedented heights."

The report said that prices remained very volatile, possibly indicating speculative dynamics in markets with reduced intermediation capacity.

"Third, energy-intensive sectors suffered. For instance, the stock prices of German industrial firms fell markedly when natural gas prices spiked," it added.

"Similarly, those of firms for which natural gas is a key production input declined much more than broad equity indices."

THE FIGHT AGAINST INFLATION

According to the Quarterly Review, equity markets were volatile as investors' perceptions of the policy outlook evolved.

It said in mid-June, AE stocks began rising - even though earnings forecasts fell - as market-based expectations of inflation and policy rates declined.

However, it said starting in August, equities reversed course, with energy disruptions putting pressure on prices in Europe and policymakers reiterating their commitment to fighting inflation globally, leading investors to anticipate higher future rates.

"Differences in returns across sectors confirmed that the interest rate outlook shaped equity markets. Indeed, the stocks of traditionally rate-sensitive industries, such as information technology, gained most as implied policy rates fell after mid-June."

BIS said that throughout the review period, investors' concerns about downside risks were visible in option-implied equity volatility, which remained above its historical average.

Emerging market economy (EME) equities, except Chinese stocks, largely tracked AE benchmarks for most of the review period, it added.

"EME stocks rose steadily through August and increased on net. Chinese indices diverged due to local factors, chiefly persistent problems in the real estate sector and recurring lockdowns to manage the lingering pandemic."

The Quarterly Review also said new credit issuance dropped during the review period, adding that the drop was broad-based, but most pronounced in Europe and in the high-yield (HY) segment - where issuance came virtually to a halt.

"This occurred while bank credit was generally holding up, despite a tightening of credit standards," it added.

BIS said there were two factors behind patterns in bond issuance. First, from the perspective of borrowers, rising rates reduced the appeal of refinancing outstanding debt, especially in the HY space. Second, investor demand, as proxied by fund flows, remained weak in the HY segment.

BIS said private credit and structured finance also saw declines in issuance. Private credit deals fell below 2021 levels, contracting after a decade of sustained growth.

"The flow of collateralised loan obligations (CLOs) investing in new leveraged loans remained broadly stable, after dipping earlier in the year, partly due to losses on warehoused loans as the Ukraine war broke out."

Just as with bonds, the issuance of "refinancing" CLOs came to a halt, with dynamics in the European CLO market suggesting that investors might be underestimating tail risk, said BIS.

Overall, it said, financial conditions in AEs evolved in line with the markets for risky assets. They eased starting in mid-June, as equities rose and corporate spreads narrowed, and tightened in August.

"In terms of levels, conditions were somewhat less accommodative than the historical norm in the euro area but remained marginally loose in the United States and especially in other AEs. Real rates also remained below long- term averages in some countries," BIS added.

DEVELOPMENTS IN EMEs

Financial conditions in emerging market economies (EMEs) fluctuated as the effect of depreciating currencies was partially offset by falling yields, said the Quarterly Review.

"After a marked tightening that followed the war in Ukraine, financial conditions eased starting in mid-June and ended the review period roughly unchanged," it added.

"The easing occurred even as the US dollar remained strong after appreciating markedly against EME currencies," said the report, adding that this easing hinged on decreasing US sovereign yields and, later, declining local currency bond yields.

BIS said that cross-country patterns in EME sovereign yields mostly reflected differences in inflation rates.

It further said on the back of a more aggressive monetary policy in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) and Latin America, especially Brazil and Mexico - which had started tackling inflation already in 2021 - yields remained markedly higher in those regions than in Asia.

It said in China, yields moved sideways as lockdowns and persistent pressures in the real estate sector clouded the economic outlook, thus spurring public support.

On the whole, EME currencies depreciated against the US dollar, but with notable differentiation across countries, said the Quarterly Review.

A deteriorating current account deficit weighed on the Colombian peso, and persistently elevated inflation sapped the Argentine peso and Turkish lira, it added.

"In turn, dependence on expensive commodities was a headwind for some currencies, such as the Pakistan rupee."

BIS said the dimming growth outlook in China, together with a negative differential relative to the US yield curve, contributed to a continued weakening of the renminbi.

"On the back of an early tightening cycle and an attractive carry profile, some Latin American currencies proved more stable towards the end of the review period," it added. +