TWN Info Service on Climate Change (May23/07)
26 May 2023
Third World Network

Dear friends,

Equity assessment of global mitigation pathways in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report

The Working Group III contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) has based its analysis of global mitigation pathways on a select subset of 1,202 scenarios out of the 2,425 scenarios submitted to it. The IPCC authors decided the vetting/selection criteria and hence the assessed scenarios are not representative of the literature. Adherence to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) principles of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR&RC) was not part of these criteria.

A new Briefing Paper published by the Third World Network presents the results of an equity assessment carried out for all the scenarios that use a 10-region classification and correspond to the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement and which were part of the IPCC WGIII assessment. The key overall finding is that all scenarios project a highly unequal future world that perpetuates most inequalities. Growth and development, and energy use, are restricted for developing countries, and not just fossil fuel consumption. Other significant findings include:
* Per capita GDP and consumption are projected to remain much higher for developed countries compared with developing countries even in 2050.
* Primary energy consumption (which includes renewables) is projected to remain much higher for developed countries compared with developing countries.
* Annex-I countries until net zero continue to appropriate a disproportionate share of the global carbon budget across all scenario categories, irrespective of the temperature target. In all scenarios, the greater the remaining carbon budget, the greater is the fossil fuel consumption projected for developed nations.
* Emissions reductions for developing regions from 2020 to 2030 are comparable to or higher than the emissions reductions for developed regions.
* In the 1.5 deg. C scenarios with no or limited overshoot, all developing regions are to begin emissions reduction circa 2020, that is, immediately alongside the developed regions.

The findings show that the scenarios do not take any account of equity and CBDR&RC, and project the perpetuation of global inequalities in a number of economic, energy and emission variables. Developing countries are therefore well-advised not to use the scenarios and global mitigation pathways of AR6 as the benchmark or reference for negotiations due to the highly unequal regional outcomes underlying the global targets on which these scenarios are based.

The TWN Briefing Paper, “Equity assessment of global mitigation pathways in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report”, is available at https://twn.my/title2/briefing_papers/twn/Equity%20assessment
%20TWNBP%20May%202023%20Jayaraman.pdf

With best wishes,
Third World Network