TWN Info Service on Climate Change (Apr22/05)
6 April 2022
Third World Network

Key messages from IPCC report on ‘Mitigation of Climate Change’

Delhi/Kathmandu, 6 April (Indrajit Bose, Prerna Bomzan) – The Summary for Policymakers (SPM) of the assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Working Group 3 (WG 3) on ‘Mitigation of Climate Change’ contains many key messages.

The SPM was approved by governments on 3 April, following two weeks of intense negotiations virtually, which began on 21 March. 

The SPM, which is part of the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) is expected to play a key role in the up-coming negotiations under the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement (PA).

The SPM comprises four sections as follows: recent developments and current trends; system transformations to limit global warming; linkages between mitigation, adaptation, and sustainable development; and strengthening the response.

Following are some of the key messages from the SPM:

—    “Total net anthropogenic GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions have continued to rise during the period 2010–2019, as have cumulative net CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions since 1850. Average annual GHG emissions during 2010-2019 were higher than in any previous decade, but the rate of growth between 2010 and 2019 was lower than that between 2000 and 2009.

—    Based on central estimates only, historical cumulative net CO2 emissions between 1850-2019 amount to about four fifths of the total carbon budget for a 50% probability of limiting global warming to 1.5°C…and to about two thirds of the total carbon budget for a 67% probability to limit global warming to 2°C.

—    Net anthropogenic GHG emissions have increased since 2010 across all major sectors globally. An increasing share of emissions can be attributed to urban areas. Emissions reductions in CO2 from fossil fuels and industrial processes, due to improvements in energy intensity of GDP and carbon intensity of energy, have been less than emission increases from rising global activity levels in industry, energy supply, transport, agriculture and buildings.

—    GHG emissions trends over 1990-2019 vary widely across regions and over time, and across different stages of development. Average global per capita net anthropogenic GHG emissions increased from 7.7 to 7.8 tCO2-eq (tons CO2 equivalent), ranging from 2.6 tCO2-eq to 19 tCO2-eq across regions. Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) have much lower per capita emissions (1.7 tCO2-eq, 4.6 tCO2-eq, respectively) than the global average (6.9 tCO2- eq), excluding CO2-LULUCF.

—    Historical contributions to cumulative net anthropogenic CO2 emissions between 1850 and 2019 vary substantially across regions in terms of total magnitude, but also in terms of contributions to CO2-FFI (1650 +/- 73 GtCO2-eq) and net CO2-LULUCF (760 +/- 220 GtCO2-eq) emissions. Globally, the major share of cumulative CO2-FFI emissions is concentrated in a few regions, while cumulative CO2-LULUCF emissions are concentrated in other regions. LDCs contributed less than 0.4% of historical cumulative CO2-FFI emissions between 1850 and 2019, while SIDS contributed 0.5%.

—    In 2019, around 48% of the global population live in countries emitting on average more than 6t CO2-eq per capita, excluding CO2-LULUCF (land use and land use change and forestry). 35% live in countries emitting more than 9 tCO2-eq per capita. Another 41% live in countries emitting less than 3 tCO2-eq per capita. A substantial share of the population in these low emitting countries lack access to modern energy services. Eradicating extreme poverty, energy poverty, and providing decent living standards to all in these regions in the context of achieving sustainable development objectives, in the near-term, can be achieved without significant global emissions growth.

—    Globally, the 10% of households with the highest per capita emissions contribute 34-45% of global consumption-based household GHG emissions, while the middle 40% contribute 40-53%, and the bottom 50% contribute 13-15%.

—    Annual tracked total financial flows for climate mitigation and adaptation increased by up to 60% between 2013/14 and 2019/20 (in USD2015), but average growth has slowed since 2018. These financial flows remained heavily focused on mitigation, are uneven, and have developed heterogeneously across regions and sectors. In 2018, public and publicly mobilised private climate finance flows from developed to developing countries were below the collective goal under the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement to mobilize USD 100 billion per year by 2020 in the context of meaningful mitigation action and transparency on implementation.

Public and private finance flows for fossil fuels are still greater than those for climate adaptation and mitigation. Markets for green bonds, ESG (environmental, social and governance) and sustainable finance products have expanded significantly since AR5 (the 5th Assessment Report). Challenges remain, in particular around integrity and additionality, as well as the limited applicability of these markets to many developing countries.

—    Projected cumulative future CO2 emissions over the lifetime of existing and currently planned fossil fuel infrastructure without additional abatement exceed the total cumulative net CO2 emissions in pathways that limit warming to 1.5°C (>50%) with no or limited overshoot. They are approximately equal to total cumulative net CO2 emissions in pathways that limit warming to 2°C (>67%).

—    Global GHG emissions are projected to peak between 2020 and at the latest before 2025 in global modelled pathways that limit warming to 1.5°C (>50%) with no or limited overshoot and in those that limit warming to 2°C (>67%) and assume immediate action.

In both types of modelled pathways, rapid and deep GHG emissions reductions follow throughout 2030, 2040 and 2050. Without a strengthening of policies beyond those that are implemented by the end of 2020, GHG emissions are projected to rise beyond 2025, leading to a median global warming of 3.2 [2.2 to 3.5] °C by 2100.

—    All mitigation strategies face implementation challenges, including technology risks, scaling, and costs. Many challenges, such as dependence on CDR (carbon dioxide removal), pressure on land and biodiversity (e.g., bioenergy) and reliance on technologies with high upfront investments (e.g., nuclear), are significantly reduced in modelled pathways that assume using resources more efficiently (e.g., IMP-LD) or shift global development towards sustainability (e.g., IMP-SP). (IMP refers to ‘Illustrative Mitigation Pathways’).

—    Reducing GHG emissions across the full energy sector requires major transitions, including a substantial reduction in overall fossil fuel use, the deployment of low-emission energy sources, switching to alternative energy carriers, and energy efficiency and conservation. The continued installation of unabated fossil fuel infrastructure will ‘lock-in’ GHG emissions.

—    Net-zero CO2 energy systems entail: a substantial reduction in overall fossil fuel use, minimal use of unabated fossil fuels, and use of CCS (carbon capture and storage) in the remaining fossil system; electricity systems that emit no net CO2; widespread electrification of the energy system including end uses; energy carriers such as sustainable biofuels, low-emissions hydrogen, and derivatives in applications less amenable to electrification; energy conservation and efficiency; and greater physical, institutional, and operational integration across the energy system.

CDR will be needed to counter-balance residual emissions in the energy sector. The most appropriate strategies depend on national and regional circumstances, including enabling conditions and technology availability.

(A footnote in the SPM defines ‘unabated fossil fuels’ as “fossil fuels produced and used without interventions that substantially reduce the amount of GHG emitted throughout the life-cycle.”)

—    Electricity systems powered predominantly by renewables are becoming increasingly viable... It will be more challenging to supply the entire energy system with renewable energy. Even though operational, technological, economic, regulatory, and social challenges remain, a variety of systemic solutions to accommodate large shares of renewables in the energy system have emerged.

—    Limiting global warming to 2°C or below will leave a substantial amount of fossil fuels unburned and could strand considerable fossil fuel infrastructure. Depending on its availability, CCS could allow fossil fuels to be used longer, reducing stranded assets.

The combined global discounted value of the unburned fossil fuels and stranded fossil fuel infrastructure has been projected to be around 1- 4 trillion (US) dollars from 2015 to 2050 to limit global warming to approximately 2°C, and it will be higher if global warming is limited to approximately 1.5°C. In this context, coal assets are projected to be at risk of being stranded before 2030, while oil and gas assets are projected to be more at risk of being stranded toward mid-century. A low-emission energy sector transition is projected to reduce international trade in fossil fuels.

—    CCS is an option to reduce emissions from large-scale fossil-based energy and industry sources, provided geological storage is available. In contrast to the oil and gas sector, CCS is less mature in the power sector, as well as in cement and chemicals production, where it is a critical mitigation option…Implementation of CCS currently faces technological, economic, institutional, ecological-environmental and socio-cultural barriers. Currently, global rates of CCS deployment are far below those in modelled pathways limiting global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C. Enabling conditions such as policy instruments, greater public support and technological innovation could reduce these barriers.

—    Emissions intensive and highly traded basic materials industries are exposed to international competition, and international cooperation and coordination may be particularly important in enabling change...

—    Substantial potential for GHG reductions, both direct and indirect, for the transport sector largely depends on power sector decarbonisation, and low emissions feedstocks and production chains. Integrated transport and energy infrastructure planning and operations can enable sectoral synergies and reduce the environmental, social, and economic impacts of decarbonising the transport and energy sectors. Technology transfer and financing can support developing countries leapfrogging or transitioning to low emissions transport systems thereby providing multiple co-benefits.

—    AFOLU (agriculture, forestry and other land use) mitigation measures cannot compensate for delayed emission reductions in other sectors. Persistent and region-specific barriers continue to hamper the economic and political feasibility of deploying AFOLU mitigation options. Assisting countries to overcome barriers will help to achieve significant mitigation

—    Realising the AFOLU potential entails overcoming institutional, economic and policy constraints and managing potential trade-offs…Barriers to the implementation of AFOLU mitigation include insufficient institutional and financial support, uncertainty over long-term additionality and trade-offs, weak governance, insecure land ownership, the low incomes and the lack of access to alternative sources of income, and the risk of reversal. Limited access to technology, data, and know-how is a barrier to implementation. Research and development are key for all measures.

—    Net costs of delivering 5-6 Gt CO2 yr-1 of forest related carbon sequestration and emission reduction as assessed with sectoral models are estimated to reach to ~USD400 billion yr-1 by 2050. The costs of other AFOLU mitigation measures are highly context specific. Financing needs in AFOLU, and in particular in forestry, include both the direct effects of any changes in activities as well as the opportunity costs associated with land use change. Enhanced monitoring, reporting and verification capacity and the rule of law are crucial for land-based mitigation, in combination with policies also recognising interactions with wider ecosystem services, could enable engagement by a wider array of actors, including private businesses, NGOs, and Indigenous Peoples and local communities.

—    Demand-side mitigation potential differs between and within regions, and some regions and populations require additional energy, capacity, and resources for human wellbeing. The lowest population quartile by income worldwide faces shortfalls in shelter, mobility, and nutrition.

—    CDR refers to anthropogenic activities that remove CO2 from the atmosphere and store it durably in geological, terrestrial, or ocean reservoirs, or in products. CDR methods vary in terms of their maturity, removal process, timescale of carbon storage, storage medium, mitigation potential, cost, co-benefits, impacts and risks, and governance requirements.

—    Accelerated and equitable climate action in mitigating, and adapting to, climate change impacts is critical to sustainable development. Climate change actions can also result in some trade-offs. The trade-offs of individual options could be managed through policy design. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) adopted under the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development can be used as a basis for evaluating climate action in the context of sustainable development.

—    There is a strong link between sustainable development, vulnerability and climate risks. Limited economic, social and institutional resources often result in high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity, especially in developing countries. Several response options deliver both mitigation and adaptation outcomes, especially in human settlements, land management, and in relation to ecosystems. However, land and aquatic ecosystems can be adversely affected by some mitigation actions, depending on their implementation. Coordinated cross-sectoral policies and planning can maximise synergies and avoid or reduce trade-offs between mitigation and adaptation.

—    Enhanced mitigation and broader action to shift development pathways towards sustainability will have distributional consequences within and between countries. Attention to equity and broad and meaningful participation of all relevant actors in decision-making at all scales can build social trust, and deepen and widen support for transformative changes.

—    Climate governance, acting through laws, strategies and institutions, based on national circumstances, supports mitigation by providing frameworks through which diverse actors interact, and a basis for policy development and implementation. Climate governance is most effective when it integrates across multiple policy domains, helps realise synergies and minimize trade-offs, and connects national and sub-national policy-making levels. Effective and equitable climate governance builds on engagement with civil society actors, political actors, businesses, youth, labour, media, Indigenous Peoples and local communities.

—    Tracked financial flows fall short of the levels needed to achieve mitigation goals across all sectors and regions. The challenge of closing gaps is largest in developing countries as a whole. Scaling up mitigation financial flows can be supported by clear policy choices and signals from governments and the international community. Accelerated international financial cooperation is a critical enabler of low-GHG and just transitions, and can address inequities in access to finance and the costs of, and vulnerability to, the impacts of climate change.

—    International cooperation is a critical enabler for achieving ambitious climate change mitigation goals. The UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol, and Paris Agreement are supporting rising levels of national ambition and encouraging development and implementation of climate policies, although gaps remain. Partnerships, agreements, institutions and initiatives operating at the sub- global and sectoral levels and engaging multiple actors are emerging, with mixed levels of effectiveness.”