Kabila steps into a minefield

As Laurent Kabila assumes the helm of power in Zaire, Kenneth Blackman profiles the man, the challenges he faces, and the other political actors in post-Mobutu Zaire.

REBEL leader Laurent Kabila has seized power in Zaire - now known as the Democratic Republic of Congo - and finally ousted President Mobutu Sese Seko who ruled the country for 32 years.Kabila and his Alliance of Democratic Forces for the Liberation (AFDL) of Congo-Zaire, now face what could be their toughest battle yet: overseeing a transition that is unlikely to prove easy.

That transition should, in principle, culminate in polls in a country that does not have a history of democratic elections and thus lacks the structures needed for this. The last presidential election, held while Zaire was still a one-party state was in 1984.The unarmed opposition will want to be given a major role in Zaire's transition. Victims of human rights violations, past and present, are likely to press for redress. The government soldiers who went over to the AFDL could prove unpredictable. And Kabila is likely to come under pressure from an international community that will want to see a rapid democratisation.

A ticket out of poverty

One of the biggest challenges Kabila is likely to face is living up to the expectations of a people who, despite their country's natural wealth, have lived in misery, and who see him as a ticket out of poverty and underdevelopment. According to UN statistics, nearly three-quarters of Zaire's 48 million people have no access to basic health care. Only 27% have access to safe drinking water and about 14 out of every 100 children die before the age of five. Infrastructure, too, is deficient: the country has a total area of 2,345,410 sq km, but only 2,800 km of the 146,500 km of roads are paved.

On the political front, the West would like to see a rapid transition to democracy. Kabila stated in March that the AFDL's plans for the post-Mobutu period hinge on a transitional government that should not last longer than a year and should include representatives of the Kinshasa-based opposition. However, there have been indications since then that the transition could take longer - at least two years. It has been argued in some circles that polls should come only after constitutional reforms, including the establishment of a federal system. This could placate provinces like Shaba, which attempted to secede in the past, and Kasai, which had carved out a certain degree of autonomy for itself in recent years.

Who is Kabila?

While the life of Mobutu Sese Seko and the ruin his rule brought to this Central African nation are well-documented, less is known of the man who brought his dictatorship to an end.

Laurent Kabila, who is 58, was born to the Luba tribe in the town of Ankoro, Shaba, along the Zaire river. He studied philosophy in France and then became a member of the North Katanga (Shaba) assembly, supporting then Prime Minister Patrice Lumumba. As with other members of the Lumumbist movement, Kabila was considered to have a Marxist/Maoist orientation.

Following Lumumba's death, he joined the Lumumbist rebel movement, the National Liberation Council of the Congo Zaire (NLC), and in April 1964 joined Gaston Soumaliot in launching the 'Simba' rebellion in the Rusizi lowlands near Uvira. However, low morale, accusations of betrayal, and dissension within the ranks of the NLC soon led to its collapse, and a military offensive aided by US military aircraft and Belgian paratroopers, brought in Mobutu to save Zaire from 'communism'. The rebels fled Zaire in 1964.

The division of the country between two governments, one identified as 'communist', was used by Mobutu to justify his second coup. In October 1967, Soumaliot and Kabila founded the People's Revolution Party (PRP) with an armed wing called the People's Armed Forces, a rebel group based in Fizi and the Baraka mountains, near lake Tanganyika. They received financial and logistical support from the Soviet Union and China, which was channelled through a 'sympathetic' Tanzania. Their numbers also included a contingent of Rwandan Tutsis, led by Mandandi, and some 100 Cuban soldiers.

Cuban revolutionary Che Guevara, having spent over a year with the PRP, was disillusioned with the rebels' incompetence, disorganisation and the perpetual absence of Soumaliot and Kabila, who were referred to as 'tourists' by their own troops. Che Guevara felt sorry for the peasants who were victimised and ill-treated by the rebels. Following their defeat in 1977, Kabila fled to Tanzania from where he continued his guerrilla warfare in the Fizi area until 1988 before fading from the public's view until October last year.

US reaction

Prior and subsequent to this defeat, Kabila had spent a great deal of time in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, where he is said to have met with Tanzanian President Julius Nyerere. Initially, many believed that Kabila would be able to draw support from his Shaba region. However, many in the Shaba do not remember Kabila's PRP days favourably. In fact, Shabans from his own Luba ethnic tribe blame Kabila for the death of popular Mulubakat leader Jason Sendwe, secessionist Moise Tshombe's rival. While Shaba is interested in greater political and financial autonomy, many still want to remain in Zaire.

For Dr Solomon Nkiwane, lecturer in political science at the University of Zimbabwe, Kabila is, in a way, a reincarnation of Lumumba. 'Kabila was an associate of Patrice Lumumba,' Nkiwane recalled in a recent televised panel discussion. 'He has continued in that kind of commitment standing up for Congolese nationalism. 'He is in fact a very refreshing revelation because a lot of people had given up (the idea) that there were any other people remaining who espoused the philosophy and the thrust of Patrice Lumumba and therefore he is an extremely important person, at least among those people who believed in Patrice Lumumba and African nationalism in general.'

Lumumba's death has been blamed by many on the CIA. He 'was murdered by the CIA, although they did not do it directly, they did it through their cronies,' according to Tafataona Mahoso, a lecturer in the Division of Communications at the Harare Polytechnic in Zimbabwe. On the other hand, the United States did not appear hostile to Kabila. In fact, Washington - which supported Mobutu during the Cold War as a counterfoil to a perceived Marxist threat in the region - apparently realised that the former dictator had outlived his usefulness. France, which had been an unconditional ally of Mobutu, and French business interests, could be the main victims of the dictator's demise. As reports emerged that Washington was quietly putting pressure on Mobutu to step down, and as the AFDL moved from victory to victory - North American business interests openly courted the rebel leader.

Leading the way was the American Mineral Fields company. According to a report in the 2 May edition of the Financial Mail, a South African newspaper, the company signed a billion-dollar deal to develop a copper and cobalt mine in Kolwezi, Shaba, with Kabila and AFDL Finance Commissioner Mawampanga Nanga, a proponent of economic liberalisation, who has taught in the United States. South African mining firms also sent representatives to negotiate with the AFDL in recent months.

The fact that Kabila is viewed by some as having espoused Maoism during the 1960s and 1970s and that his earlier guerrilla struggle received support from Russia and China have weighed little against the need to safeguard investments already made in Zaire, in the case of the South Africans, or the will to cash in on its mineral wealth, which the North Americans are eager to do. The prize is no minor one. Zaire accounts for 60% of global cobalt production and also has large deposits of copper, tin, uranium, silver, tungsten, manganese, gold, zinc, bauxite, diamonds and other minerals. Other natural resources include a hydropower potential estimated at 100,000 megawatts.

Who's who in the New Democratic Republic Of Congo

Kabila's allies

Kabila's Alliance of Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Congo-Zaire (AFDL) was formed 18 October 1996 at Lemera, South Kivu. The alliance comprises of:

(i) Partie de la Revolution Populaire (PRP), a self-proclaimed 'marxist- orientated' rebel group founded by Kabila in 1967 during the Lumumbist rebellion. It was based in the Fizi and Baraka mountains and is also refered to a the 'Simba' of 'Muleliste' movement. The PRP also claims it can call on support from John Garang's Sudanese People's Liberation Army if needed.

(ii)Alliance Democratique des Peuple (ADP), led by Deogratias (Deo/Douglas) Bugera from Rutshuru, is primarily composed of Zairean Tutsis - Banyamulenge and Banyamasisi - who have been driven out of their homes in North and South Kivu. Muller Ruhimbika is considered to be a prominent Banyamulenge member. Their overall population, not only soldiers, is estimated at some 300,000.

(iii)Mouvant Revolutionnaire pour la Liberation du Zaire (MRLZ), led by Masusu Nindaga, draw its ranks from the Bashi tribe around Bukavu, South Kivu.

(iv) Conseil National de Resistance pour la Democatie (CNRD)is composed of rebel fighters from eastern Kasai, they were led by Andre Kisase Ngandu, a Luba (or Muluba) from Lumumba's Kasai-Oriental tribe.

(v) Hunde and Ngilima Mai-Mai from the North Kivu region (groups of the Mai-Mai have fought on both sides of the conflict). The Mai-Mai are guerrilla warrior groups originally set up by the Hunde tribe. They originated in the 1960s as part of a nationalist and Marxist guerrilla group under the leadership of Patrice Lumumba, who was succeeded by Pierre Mulele. In the 1960s, the Mai-Mai movement also attracted deserters from Sergeant Mobutu's Congolese Armed Forces. They have a strong belief in magic, hence the name Mai-Mai, meaning 'water', which is based on their belief that special potions neutralise bullets by turning them into water. More recently, the term Mai-Mai is often preceded by another name linked to the region of origin of a specific group of warriors, such as Ngilima (Hunde) Mai-Mai, Bangirima Mai-Mai, etc. As a group they generally hate both Rwandan and Zairean Hutu, because of skirmishes over land ownership. However many have not supported attacks on Tutsis as some Mai Mai view the Tutsis as fellow victims of Hutu aggression. Following the capture of Zairean territory by rebel forces, Mai-Mai warriors, most of whom were young untrained boys, soon joined their ranks.Frequent fighting broke out between the two groups leading to AFDL orders to eliminate elements of the Mai-Mai leadership and retrain the warriors. A 'truce' between the two parties was announced on rebel radio in early 1997.

(vi) Banyamulenge (and Banyama-sisi). The Banyamulenge (singular: nyamulenga) are members of the Tutsi (plural: Batutsi) ethnic group from the South Kivu and the Banyamasisi (singular: Nyamasisi) are Tutsis from the North Kivu area. They are also referred to collectively as the Banyamulenge 'rebels' or 'Tutsi rebels' and are believed to form the nucleus of the ADFL forces. From 1991 to 1996 anti-Banyamulenge sentiments were espoused not only by the Kivu military and political leadership but by those in Kinshasa as well. Thus conflict resolution, which must include settlement of the nationality question and the sharing of land, political power and wealth, will have to occur on a national as well as regional level.

(vii) Local recruits from rebel-held areas, whose numbers are growing. (viii) FAZ deserters, whose numbers are also said to be increasing.

Mobutu and the Zairean government claimed that the AFDL was a surrogate for Rwandan and Ugandan, as well as Burundian, aggression. Zaire also claimed that the AFDL forces received a substantial amount of logistical support, including soldiers, from Rwanda and possibly Uganda. Kabila has said that some Ugandans and Rwandans were fighting with AFDL forces because of ethnic solidarity, claiming that the soldiers in question originated from tribes that cross national boundaries.

The Opposition

Ettienne Tshisekedi wa MalumbaTshisekedi, who is 64, is a member of the Muluba tribe from the Kasai region. He is said to be related by marriage to Mobutu through his elder brother, Bonaventure Kalonga, who is married to a cousin of Mobutu's first wife. For 19 years he was a chosen aide to Mobutu, holding the post of Minister of the Interior in the Second Republic. However, like many in Mobutu's entourage, he fell out of grace and was imprisoned for several years.

Following his release from prison, Tshisekedi formed the influential opposition party Union pour la Democratie et le Progres Social (UDPS). During the Third Republic (post-1990) he was elected to the post of prime minister on three different occasions; each time he was sacked by Mobutu over financial differences. On these occasions he refused to recognise Mobutu's authority to dismiss him, resulting in the creation of parallel governments on three occasions.

At one point, Mobutu offered Tshisekedi the post of prime minister over a Mobutu-controlled Cabinet, which he refused. Following his November 1996 visit with a convalescing Mobutu in France, Tshisekedi claimed that they had reconciled their differences and that Mobutu had promised to restore him as prime minister. Mobutu denied any such agreement, reconfirming Kengo wa Dondo as prime minister in the 1996 crisis government. In a move aimed at undermining the new crisis government, members of the radical opposition allied to Tshisekedi called for a total boycott of the new banknotes issued in January 1997.

In March 1997, the widely despised Kengo was sacked by parliament. On the day Mobutu's old foe Tshisekedi was to take office as premier, Mobutu crushed the new government and installed General Likulia Bolongo, an old ally.

Tshisekedi had been out-manoeuvred again. He earned the ire of the rebels for even accepting the prime minister's post while Mobutu was still president (they derided the offer of six cabinet posts), and had alienated most of his potential political allies.

Tshisekedi has surrounded himself with politically astute and intelligent young men whom many refer to as his 'young turks'. These are men who came into politics after 1990 and therefore, having never been members of the ruling Mouvement Populaire de la Revolution (MPR), remain untouched by pre-1990 MPR politics. Young 'turks' like Joseph Olengakhoy, Jacques Matanda and George Nsongola are most often used to muster public and union support for the UDPS. Tshisekedi's supporters often vacillated between support for him and Kabila's AFDL rebels. He also continues to receive strong support from the trade union movement.Tshisekedi's rhetoric has always been that of an opposition force, based on criticism of the government. As it is easier to be a government critic than a policy maker, it is difficult to determine what kind of leader he will make.

Union Sacree de l'Opposition Radicale et Allies (Union Sacree or USORAL) is an alliance of opposition parties, initially numbering 130, of which the three most powerful were the UDPS, UFERI and PDSC. Political affiliations within the alliance remain a fluid concept with members frequently changing from one party to another both within and outside of the Union Sacree. It has persevered despite several successful efforts to co-opt members and divide member parties. However, in April 1994, a schism developed when the moderate elements of the Union Sacree, including the Bo-boliko's PDSC, created the Union pour la Republique et la Democratie (URD) supporting Kengo in a compromise government to end the existence of parallel Tshisekedi and Mobutu governments.

In February 1996, the PDSC boycotted the Union Sacree general assembly and left the alliance. Bo-boliko also holds one of the two vice-presidents' posts on the Haut Conseil de la Republique-Assemblee Nationale (HCR-PT), that of the opposition.

In March 1996, Lambert Mende's Mouvement National Congolais-Lumumba (MNC-Originel) refused to recognise Tshisekedi's authority. The alliance finally split in September 1996 between the current president Fredereric Kibassa Maliba, who is head of the UDPS-Legale and Tshisekedi's UDPS-Orthodoxe. No members of the Union Sacree were included in the December 1996 crisis government.

It should be noted that as of the end of 1996 some 450 parties have been registered in Zaire. Many of the opposition parties are believed to have been created or funded by Mobutist forces to divide and weaken the ranks of the 'true opposition'. Some parties have no more than a handful of members.

The above is an edited version of an earlier article which appeared in Conflict Watch (May 1997), a joint publication of IPS and TWN-Africa . (TWR 84 - August 1997)