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The New Politics of Food Scarcity The article below was published in TWN Features #3706 (July 2011). With best wishes, Third World Network July 2011 THE NEW POLITICS OF FOOD SCARCITY Dire warnings of more political unrest, conflicts, and deepening division between rich and poor as food prices soar and supply falls further behind rising demand. By Dr. Mae-Wan Ho Soaring food prices were a major trigger for the
riots that has destabilized North Africa and the Middle East beginning
December 2010 in Richard Ferguson, global head of agriculture at
Renaissance Capital, an investment bank specializing in emerging markets,
told The Guardian newspaper in the “Scarcity is the new norm” Food has quickly become the hidden driver of world politics, says Lester Brown, venerated veteran world-watcher, who also predicts that crises like these are going to become increasingly common. “Scarcity is the new norm.” Historically, price spikes tended to be almost
exclusively due to bad weather such as monsoon failure, drought, heat
wave, etc., but today, they are driven by trends of both increasing
demand and decreasing ability to supply. With a rapidly expanding
global population demanding to be fed, crop-withering temperatures and
exhausted aquifers are making it difficult to increase production. Moreover,
the world is losing its ability to soften the blow of shortages. That’s why “the food crisis of 2011 is for real”,
Brown warns, and why it may bring yet more bread riots and political
revolutions. Brown does not mention the huge speculation on agricultural commodities in the world financial markets that not only drives up prices but increases volatility, making it much more difficult for farmers and consumers to cope. Olivier de Shutter, the United Nations special rapporteur on the right to food, has referred to the 2007-2008 crisis as a “price-crisis” not a “food-crisis”, precipitated by speculation and not linked to insufficient food being produced, at least not yet, as Brown elaborates. Scarcity due to increased demand and failure of supply The scale of the problem is enormous. On the demand
side, farmers have to feed 80 million additional people each year, nearly
all in developing countries. The world’s population has doubled since
1970, and heading towards 9 billion mid-century. At the same time, the
swelling middle classes in On the supply side, global warming is already
compromising productivity. Direct field monitoring has shown that a
night time temperature rise of 1บC during the growing season reduced
yield by 10 percent. Simultaneously, water tables are falling, and in
countries where more than half of the world’s people live. The Arab
Middle East is the first region where grain production has peaked and
begun to decline because of water shortages. Grain production is going
down in In Satellite images show two huge new dust bowls:
one stretching across northern and western Rice yields in As I write, Worldwide scramble for supply and land grab During the food crisis of 2007-2008, many exporting
countries tried to control the rise of domestic food prices by restricting
exports; among them Russia and Argentina, two leading wheat exporters.
Some of the more affluent countries, led by By the end of 2009, hundreds of land acquisition
deals had been negotiated, some exceeding a million acres. A 2010 World
Bank analysis reported a total of nearly 140 million acres involved,
an area exceeding the cropland devoted to corn and wheat combined in
the The potential for conflict is high. Often made in secret, the land deals in most cases involve land used by villagers when it was sold or leased. And because there is typically no formal land title in many developing country villages, the farmers who lost their land have little or no recourse. Local hostility to such land grab is the rule,
not the exception. In 2007, as food prices were starting to rise, Land grab is no solution The land acquisitions are estimated to represent
US$50 billion. But it is hardly a solution to the food crisis. It could
take many years to realize any substantial production gains. The public
infrastructure for modern market-oriented agriculture does not yet exist
in most of Even if some of these projects do eventually boost land productivity, it will most likely contribute little to the country’s economy, particularly if virtually all the inputs – the farm equipment, fertilizer, pesticides, and seeds – are brought in from abroad and all the output is shipped out of the country. “Thus far the land grabs have contributed more to stirring unrest than to expanding food production.” Deepening divide between rich and poor The divide between rich and poor country could
grow even more pronounced, and soon, Brown predicts. In January 2011,
The low income countries that host land grabs or import grain will likely see their food situation deteriorate even further. No organized effort to ensure adequate food supplies There is no organized effort to ensure adequate
world food supplies. Indeed, most international negotiations on
agricultural trade until recently focused on access to markets, with
the “We are now so close to the edge that a breakdown
in the food system could come at any time.” Brown declares. “Consider,
for example, what would have happened if the 2010 heat wave that was
centered in “At issue now is whether the world can go beyond focusing on the symptoms of the deteriorating food situation and instead attack the underlying causes. If we cannot produce higher crop yields with less water and conserve fertile soils, many agricultural areas will cease to be viable. And this goes far beyond farmers. If we cannot move at wartime speed to stabilize the climate, we may not be able to avoid runaway food prices. If we cannot accelerate the shift to smaller families and stabilize the world population sooner rather than later, the ranks of the hungry will almost certainly continue to expand. The time to act is now – before the food crisis of 2011 becomes the new normal.” Rather disappointingly, Brown has failed (time
and again) to recommend an outright shift to organic, agro-ecological
farming, which, according to an emerging scientific consensus, is capable
of addressing most, if not all the underlying causes of deteriorating
productivity as well as conservation of natural soil and water resources
while saving the climate. Better yet, agro-ecological farming can easily
be combined with efficient local, and even off-grid renewable energy
generation that can serve local businesses, stimulate local economies
and create plenty of employment opportunities. – -ends-
The above article is reproduced from ISIS Report
14/06/11. The complete article with references can be obtained from
the When reproducing this feature, please credit
3706/11
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